What might explain the resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus? New comment with @estercsabino @LewisBuss4 @nmrfaria and othershttps://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext …
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You keep pushing this explanation but the problem exists even if 38% instead of 76% were infected. Second wave is twice as large so the actual number infected with would have to have been 20% or less. Reinfections as with the similar South African strain are more likely
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The second wave is at least twice as strong. But the IFR you published suggests 40% attack rate in first wave. 40 plus 80 equals 120% or your IFR estimate is too low.https://twitter.com/rafael_ihara/status/1354437860921847808?s=20 …
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