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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 28

    Health Nerd Retweeted Eli Perencevich, MD MS 🧼  😷

    Although I'm not sure I entirely agree with the timeline (it could easily take another 6-12mo) I think @eliowa is bang on the money here. COVID-19 may well be a seasonal endemic disease by this time 2023* *many caveats to this statementhttps://twitter.com/eliowa/status/1354990874099412992 …

    Health Nerd added,

    Eli Perencevich, MD MS 🧼  😷Verified account @eliowa
    Replying to @jeremyfaust @DrLeanaWen and 4 others
    Hustle is good since many will die this spring. But I think the end is written. Seasonal 5th common coronavirus by fall in many places. If vaccines and natural immunity mostly prevent severe disease, we have colds with variants. But lots of work to do!
    7:19 PM - 28 Jan 2021
    • 7 Retweets
    • 25 Likes
    • @SmartRestartAPS Mark Hoofnagle rodolfo quispe Gráinne david j woods 💙 Dr. Angela Rasmussen Julie Roedding Juli798686 Nancy Foster
    4 replies 7 retweets 25 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Eli Perencevich, MD MS 🧼  😷‏Verified account @eliowa Jan 28
        Replying to @GidMK

        Eli Perencevich, MD MS 🧼  😷 Retweeted David Fisman

        We are on the 1918/9 influenza timeline but we have vaccines. Nicely said here:https://mobile.twitter.com/DFisman/status/1354983449581518857 …

        Eli Perencevich, MD MS 🧼  😷 added,

        David FismanVerified account @DFisman
        I think this is an unfortunate and inaccurate headline. Pandemics have a beginning, middle and end. We are on the 1918-19 timeline now. A March surge is likely as is a summer subsidence. https://globalnews.ca/news/7605127/canada-coronavirus-pandemic-finish-line/amp/?__twitter_impression=true …
        Show this thread
        2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
      3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 28
        Replying to @eliowa

        Sure, but there are many places in the world that won't be able to vaccinate significant swathes of their population in the short term, with insufficient transmission to halt a new epidemic. Depends mostly on what we mean by "many places"!

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. Craig Kaplan‏ @TriggerLoop Jan 28
        Replying to @GidMK @eliowa

        I can’t see anything else happening but won’t it take a huge amount of work to bring it in line even with seasonal influenza let alone the seasonal coronaviruses?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Eli Perencevich, MD MS 🧼  😷‏Verified account @eliowa Jan 28
        Replying to @TriggerLoop @GidMK

        1918/9 ended without vaccine. We have a vaccine but that’ll take work.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      4. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. Nancy Foster‏ @SSNaushon Jan 28
        Replying to @GidMK @eliowa

        When and if it becomes a seasonal, endemic illness, would greater precautions be needed than during a moderate influenza season? In other words, will a higher risk person need to stay home all winter, every winter ? I normally avoid stores and most people in flu season already 😥

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Eli Perencevich, MD MS 🧼  😷‏Verified account @eliowa Jan 28
        Replying to @SSNaushon @GidMK

        We don’t know but if vaccines are so effective maybe no but there are plenty of other virus like influenza, as you said, so masking could help reduce your risk

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      4. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. Dr Rob Whitehurst‏ @OYCar Jan 28
        Replying to @GidMK @eliowa

        The Novavax trial found that reinfections were frequent in South Africa. However both CFR and death rate in current wave are both higher than first wave; these would both need some explanation if these reinfections were mostly mild. https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1354922533997473798?s=20 …pic.twitter.com/fCID5wWGX9

        1 reply 1 retweet 0 likes
      3. Eli Perencevich, MD MS 🧼  😷‏Verified account @eliowa Jan 28
        Replying to @OYCar @GidMK

        But severe? If this becomes a bad “cold” that would be expected.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Show replies

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