The whole truth about kids, schools, and COVID https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/01/just-open-schools-already/617849/ … A year ago, we had many reasons to think young kids would be most at risk in a respiratory pandemic. Months of data show something close to the opposite. The question is what we do with that information.
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Replying to @DKThomp
There are quite a few issues in this piece. One in particular is that many of the criticisms you raise about studies that are against the main point of the article also apply to all the studies you cite as evidence, but this is not mentioned at all
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I mean, the North Carolina study that you cite as evidence is definitely open to a number of these potential biases - if nothing else the contact tracing is poorly defined - but in the piece it is represented as solid evidencepic.twitter.com/XstzZARrxU
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Replying to @GidMK
I think that's a fair point, and I could have paused to point out that, despite the mounting evidence of lower transmission risk for younger children, some of the papers I mentioned might be subject to the criticisms i levied at the SK/Jerusalem studies ...
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but while the Duke study, or the Norway study, or the Sweden study might have shared or individual flaws, the main takeaway of the article, which I believe is supportable, is that the preponderance of evidence now points in a clear direction https://dontforgetthebubbles.com/evidence-summary-paediatric-covid-19-literature/ …
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Replying to @DKThomp
I don't think that's really true. I know that there are very strong opinions on both sides, but I suspect that you could write the exact same article arguing the opposite position and have just as many studies to back up your points
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The challenge here is that much of this data is mixed, uncertain, and hard to interpret. Having many studies with the same methodology saying the same thing doesn't necessarily provide any more evidence if they all have the same biases
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Could we at least agree the doomsday scenario is off the books?
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I think that the current evidence is consistent with a situation where schools are one of the prominent drivers of transmission and one where they are not risky at all - that's the problem
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Right, but at least the outliers on either side (Everybody is going to get it vs No one is getting it) aren't true.
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If this is all we can conclude at the moment, we can and must do better.
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End of conversation
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