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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom Jan 27

      Carl T. Bergstrom Retweeted Eric Feigl-Ding

      I don't see what is shocking here. Unless control measures somehow specifically block infection by wildtype but not the more transmissible variant, we expect to see an increase in frequency of the variant relative to the wildtype, irrespective of whether the measures are working.https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1353982021996044288 …

      Carl T. Bergstrom added,

      Eric Feigl-DingVerified account @DrEricDing
      OMINOUS—Denmark CDC is becoming more right — contagious #B117 variant is continuing to solidify itself as 12.1% of sequenced #SARSCoV2 samples. 📌2.4% 📌4.0% 📌7.4% 📌12.1% Most shocking — it’s doing this *despite* a sharp 🇩🇰 lockdown, which is crushing regular #COVID more. pic.twitter.com/FNQ2FJrGAU
      Show this thread
      28 replies 26 retweets 289 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom Jan 27

      To be clear, B.1.1.7 and the other more transmissible variants are not good news. But let's be shocked by the things that are surprising, and not be shocked by the things that are entirely predictable given the facts we already know.

      5 replies 12 retweets 188 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom Jan 27

      I'm very surprised—shocked wouldn't be complete hyperbole—by what has happened in Manaus this month. But I also would have been very surprised if B.1.1.7 *wasn't* increasing in frequency in Denmark, as these data show. Of course it was going to, given its transmissibility.

      8 replies 8 retweets 128 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 27
      Replying to @CT_Bergstrom

      I was actually less shocked by what happened in Manaus. There have been several blood donor serosurveys that have found very large overestimates of antibody prevalence, and I was always a bit suspicious of the extremely high number

      11:20 PM - 27 Jan 2021
      • 28 Likes
      • fipco-bio Mridul K Thomas Atomsk's Sanakan TheFatMan MD Carly Isaac Bogoch DM Travis Pew Andrea Arfè
      4 replies 0 retweets 28 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Starving Engineer‏ @edw_tweet Jan 28
          Replying to @GidMK @CT_Bergstrom

          Yeah, but the spread stopped by itself with almost no NPI and stayed flat; so whatever the true number, they must have hit herd immunity. And they lost it quick (either by seroreversion or viral mutation - my bet is on the latter given the brutality of the 2nd wave).

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Mike Dee‏ @MikeDeeeeeee Jan 28
          Replying to @edw_tweet @GidMK @CT_Bergstrom

          Would it not be a possibility that people started being very careful when bodies started piling up? No formal NPIs required. Note that new infections also didn't flatten towards zero but remained at relatively high level (even though much lower than during the first wave).

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Starving Engineer‏ @edw_tweet Jan 28
          Replying to @GidMK @CT_Bergstrom

          What was the estimate by backcalculating from the death count through the IFR?

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Dr Rob Whitehurst‏ @OYCar Jan 28
          Replying to @edw_tweet @GidMK @CT_Bergstrom

          Dr Rob Whitehurst Retweeted COVID Impact

          At least 40% unless you assume IFR was elevated in one way or another.https://mobile.twitter.com/CovidSerology/status/1349639167085477889 …

          Dr Rob Whitehurst added,

          COVID Impact @CovidSerology
          Manaus has now surpassed the very tragic 26/04 burial record of 167 with 198 burials in the past 24H (13/01) for a total of 1486 burials in January with 50% higher ICU occupancy than in April. Hard to see how Manaus avoids crossing 5k pandemic-related excess DPM. https://twitter.com/marioadolfo/status/1349498117058658313 … pic.twitter.com/Sh1ZUPBdxL
          Show this thread
          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Dr Rob Whitehurst‏ @OYCar Jan 28
          Replying to @GidMK @CT_Bergstrom

          Dr Rob Whitehurst Retweeted Rafael Ihara

          The 76% figure was never very credible. But using the IFR from your paper a 40% attack rate was. Yet second wave is worse. So a biased survey cannot in itself explain that.https://twitter.com/rafael_ihara/status/1354437860921847808?s=20 …

          Dr Rob Whitehurst added,

          Rafael Ihara @rafael_ihara
          No ritmo atual, hospitalizações em uti+sala vermelha em Manaus devem fazer pico no começo de fevereiro e normalizam totalmente na 1a quinzena de março. 2 meses como na 1a onda. pic.twitter.com/qoQsdVtZqN
          1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
        3. Thomas Bashford‏ @BashfordThomas Jan 29
          Replying to @OYCar @GidMK @CT_Bergstrom

          Thomas Bashford Retweeted

          This seems like a relevant potential bias in the Manaus 76% estimate https://twitter.com/andrew_croxford/status/1350033062378270721 …

          Thomas Bashford added,

          This Tweet is unavailable.
          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation

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