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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. John Burn-Murdoch‏Verified account @jburnmurdoch Jan 26

      Somehow even 12 months into the pandemic, people are saying "yes but how many of those 100k UK deaths were due to Covid and how many were due to lockdowns?" Time for a (short!) thread:

      134 replies 2,318 retweets 6,534 likes
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    2. John Burn-Murdoch‏Verified account @jburnmurdoch Jan 26

      1) @PHE_uk tracks deaths by underlying cause https://fingertips.phe.org.uk/static-reports/mortality-surveillance/excess-mortality-in-england-latest.html … As of Jan 8, 82,180 deaths in England named Covid-19 on death certificate. Of these, C-19 was *underlying cause* in 74,000, or 90%. These aren’t people who tested positive, recovered and then fell down stairs.

      32 replies 176 retweets 1,083 likes
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    3. John Burn-Murdoch‏Verified account @jburnmurdoch Jan 26

      2) We also have data from @ICNARC suggesting that deaths from many other causes are actually *down* this year. ICU admissions for trauma and even self-harm are lower this year than usual.pic.twitter.com/nJ2ZwK4fdc

      16 replies 129 retweets 844 likes
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    4. John Burn-Murdoch‏Verified account @jburnmurdoch Jan 26

      3) It is likely that lockdowns will have caused additional deaths in some poorer countries where people are tipped into extreme poverty, but in Peru the early data show deaths lower than usual for homicide, suicide & accidental deaths, especially for women https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0091743520303625 …pic.twitter.com/HB92hXHwto

      4 replies 119 retweets 710 likes
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    5. John Burn-Murdoch‏Verified account @jburnmurdoch Jan 26

      4) It’s absolutely possible that lockdowns have caused deaths in some places, but in most countries where this kind of analysis has been done, non-Covid deaths have fallen relative to normal levels during lockdowns. That’s especially true for developed countries like the UK.

      14 replies 125 retweets 815 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 26
      Replying to @jburnmurdoch

      I would add one consideration, which is that it was never likely that lockdowns would cause an enormous number of deaths in the short term. That idea was a very silly speculation proposed by lockdown opponents, not a realistic immediate outcome to expect

      1 reply 0 retweets 11 likes
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 26
      Replying to @GidMK @jburnmurdoch

      Imo the expected negative outcomes from lockdown were always on the scale of years or even decades (i.e. slowdowns in vaccine programs in some places, poverty, missed medical appointments etc) rather than the giant wave of deaths that some espoused

      1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
    8. John Burn-Murdoch‏Verified account @jburnmurdoch Jan 26
      Replying to @GidMK

      Yep agreed. Plus the mental health burden, which may not even show up as years of life lost, but is absolutely real and may show up in other ways.

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 26
      Replying to @jburnmurdoch

      Definitely. It always frustrated me that people assumed any decline in mental health would immediately show up in suicide numbers, rather than engaging with the complexity of both mental health and suicide

      3:34 PM - 26 Jan 2021
      • 8 Likes
      • Rachael Priddle Emma Goldsmith Frédéric Fleury-Payeur Fabien (Il/He) #Pfizer 2/2 💉💉 Jacquie 💉💉 *still wearing a mask...* Lois Patterson David Ridley
      1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
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        2. John Burn-Murdoch‏Verified account @jburnmurdoch Jan 26
          Replying to @GidMK

          Absolutely. With mental health, some issues may show up more as a subtle shift in e.g educational or career trajectory. There may be no impact in terms of QALYs at all, but still a very real issue. That deaths are the only unit used for so many Covid arguments is hugely limiting

          2 replies 1 retweet 7 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 26
          Replying to @jburnmurdoch

          Agreed. Like that ridiculous Jama open paper about school closures - you can make these arguments without absurd leaps to try and link it all back to YLL/QALYs!

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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