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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Dmitry Kobak‏ @hippopedoid Jan 7
      Replying to @AtomsksSanakan @GidMK @zorinaq

      I don't understand how Levin et al. got 1.9% for Spain. Seroprevalence was 5.0%, that's 2.3 mln people: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31483-5/fulltext …. Cumulative covid fatalities even 5 weeks later were only 28k (Table 2 in Levin et al.) That's IFR=1.2%. Even when I take 40k excess deaths, I get 1.7%.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    2. Dmitry Kobak‏ @hippopedoid Jan 8
      Replying to @hippopedoid @AtomsksSanakan and

      @GidMK I'd be very grateful if you could clarify the above question! Thanks.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 8
      Replying to @hippopedoid @AtomsksSanakan @zorinaq

      I'll have to check with my co-authors, I did not do the calculations for that graph 👍

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    4. Dmitry Kobak‏ @hippopedoid Jan 8
      Replying to @GidMK @AtomsksSanakan @zorinaq

      Thanks! But I can also write an email to the corresponding authors if that's more convenient.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 8
      Replying to @hippopedoid @AtomsksSanakan @zorinaq

      I am one of the corresponding authors lol

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    6. Dmitry Kobak‏ @hippopedoid Jan 9
      Replying to @GidMK @AtomsksSanakan @zorinaq

      Dmitry Kobak Retweeted Dmitry Kobak

      The only one actually! :-) Unrelated: this might interest you guys. I'm trying to build an infrastructure to update this regularly.https://twitter.com/hippopedoid/status/1347655523861229568 …

      Dmitry Kobak added,

      Dmitry Kobak @hippopedoid
      Excess mortality mega figure. The latest data from @HMDatabase, CDC, FT (@jburnmurdoch), NYT (@atmccann), The Economist (@J_CD_T) + Iran, Ukraine, Armenia, Georgia. Shows excess mortality, % from annual, per 100k, and undercount. Code: https://github.com/dkobak/excess-mortality … pic.twitter.com/PJ7l63vZje
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12
      Replying to @hippopedoid @AtomsksSanakan @zorinaq

      Sorry, completely forgot to get back to you! The main divergence in our Spanish estimate, according to Prof Levin, is that we took pains to include nursing home deaths, which are opaquely reported in Spanish data

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    8. Dmitry Kobak‏ @hippopedoid Jan 13
      Replying to @GidMK @AtomsksSanakan @zorinaq

      Thanks a lot. This makes sense, but where did the number of the nursing home covid deaths (in addition to the official covid death count) come from?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Dmitry Kobak‏ @hippopedoid Jan 15
      Replying to @hippopedoid @GidMK and

      Coming back to this @GidMK: I checked your Appendix F and it says: "Spain had 29137 [confirmed deaths], including 9909 deaths in nursing homes. [...] We used those proportions to allocate [...] [9909 to] age groups". But you'd need 44k deaths to get IFR~1.9% in Fig 6. Not 29k.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Dmitry Kobak‏ @hippopedoid Jan 20
      Replying to @hippopedoid @GidMK @AtomsksSanakan

      Apologies for nudging @GidMK, but I'm still trying to understand this part... Should I perhaps try to get in touch with the first author directly?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 20
      Replying to @hippopedoid @AtomsksSanakan

      Sorry, on holiday this week! Send me an email :)

      1:11 PM - 20 Jan 2021
      • 1 Like
      • Dmitry Kobak
      0 replies 0 retweets 1 like

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