I don't understand how Levin et al. got 1.9% for Spain. Seroprevalence was 5.0%, that's 2.3 mln people: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31483-5/fulltext …. Cumulative covid fatalities even 5 weeks later were only 28k (Table 2 in Levin et al.) That's IFR=1.2%. Even when I take 40k excess deaths, I get 1.7%.
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Replying to @hippopedoid @AtomsksSanakan and
@GidMK I'd be very grateful if you could clarify the above question! Thanks.1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
I'll have to check with my co-authors, I did not do the calculations for that graph
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Thanks! But I can also write an email to the corresponding authors if that's more convenient.
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I am one of the corresponding authors lol
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Dmitry Kobak Retweeted Dmitry Kobak
The only one actually! :-) Unrelated: this might interest you guys. I'm trying to build an infrastructure to update this regularly.https://twitter.com/hippopedoid/status/1347655523861229568 …
Dmitry Kobak added,
Dmitry Kobak @hippopedoidExcess mortality mega figure. The latest data from@HMDatabase, CDC, FT (@jburnmurdoch), NYT (@atmccann), The Economist (@J_CD_T) + Iran, Ukraine, Armenia, Georgia. Shows excess mortality, % from annual, per 100k, and undercount. Code: https://github.com/dkobak/excess-mortality … pic.twitter.com/PJ7l63vZje1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Sorry, completely forgot to get back to you! The main divergence in our Spanish estimate, according to Prof Levin, is that we took pains to include nursing home deaths, which are opaquely reported in Spanish data
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Thanks a lot. This makes sense, but where did the number of the nursing home covid deaths (in addition to the official covid death count) come from?
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Replying to @hippopedoid @GidMK and
Coming back to this
@GidMK: I checked your Appendix F and it says: "Spain had 29137 [confirmed deaths], including 9909 deaths in nursing homes. [...] We used those proportions to allocate [...] [9909 to] age groups". But you'd need 44k deaths to get IFR~1.9% in Fig 6. Not 29k.1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Apologies for nudging
@GidMK, but I'm still trying to understand this part... Should I perhaps try to get in touch with the first author directly?1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
Sorry, on holiday this week! Send me an email :)
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