It's likely that the marginal benefit - the additional improvement on top of other things - of very restrictive COVID-19 interventions like stay-at-home orders may be quite small However, this is probably equally true of the COST of these interventions
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The point is not that these restrictions are either good or bad, but simply that the idea that there is a simple way to estimate the cost-benefit of such interventions is almost certainly wrong
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In case you haven't seen it yet: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304407620303468 … Seems to be the most careful study (in terms of getting to causality) out there, albeit relying on US data.
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