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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

      16/n I mean, reading the paper you might get the impression that all South Korea did was some optional social distancing, emergency declaration, and case quarantine, rather than a coordinated and multi-step approach including HUGE healthcare investment

      3 replies 12 retweets 175 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

      17/n There's also not much effort to disentangle the complexities of the marginal benefit of each intervention, unlike previous research. It's likely, for example, that closing schools in Sweden (that did little else) had a huge impact...

      5 replies 9 retweets 105 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

      18/n ...but that this was not as effective as in Italy, which had many interventions

      1 reply 6 retweets 83 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

      19/n The authors also use some fairly inappropriate causal language throughout. These are the potential benefits ASSOCIATED WITH the announcement of policies in each place, we certainly can't infer a causal impact herepic.twitter.com/RXGpCijYlD

      1 reply 9 retweets 112 likes
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    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

      20/n In other words, there are innumerable confounding factors that may have made the interventions more/less effective, like the age structure of the population, how socially distanced they were pre-pandemic etc...

      1 reply 8 retweets 110 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

      21/n At best, this study provides us with some evidence that mrNPIs are not associated with a large marginal benefit in terms of case numbers over lnNPIs, when comparing a tiny group of dissimilar nations

      2 replies 8 retweets 95 likes
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    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

      22/n More realistically, I think we can probably say that the paper tells us little useful except that analysing the impact of NPIs generally is extremely hard

      3 replies 14 retweets 142 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

      23/n This is a bit of a shame, because I actually agree wholeheartedly with the authors that there is a cost to restrictive NPIs, and the marginal benefit of (say) stay-at-home orders is likely to be quite small in many circumstances

      2 replies 8 retweets 92 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

      24/n That being said, this paper just doesn't tell us anything useful about these mrNPIs beyond some more very vague evidence that they may not be as beneficial on top of other interventions (maybe)

      1 reply 6 retweets 79 likes
      Show this thread
    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

      25/n Ultimately, the authors may have failed to find a benefit of business closures or stay-at-home orders, but the methodology used just doesn't give us enough information to say much, if anything, conclusivelypic.twitter.com/0yrwOfkA4q

      8 replies 12 retweets 124 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 13

      Health Nerd Retweeted Andreas Backhaus

      26/n Some more issues with the study, which gets worse and worse the more you look at it!https://twitter.com/AndreasShrugged/status/1349464781145731073?s=20 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Andreas Backhaus @AndreasShrugged
      There's a new paper by John Ioannidis and co-authors that's intended to push their anti-lockdown message by performing a flimsy empirical analysis. Adding to @GidMK's thread, I will just highlight one flaw that should have prevented this paper from being published but hasn't. pic.twitter.com/nn6MKQd96l
      Show this thread
      7:14 PM - 13 Jan 2021
      • 12 Retweets
      • 92 Likes
      • Rochedo Felipe de lima Tânia Madella William Hamon 🌊 Jim Wolf-Andreas Liebert Linda - to zero Laura Hollister Christel de Bruijn, PhD
      16 replies 12 retweets 92 likes
        1. Iain Mulady‏ @IainMulady Jan 13
          Replying to @GidMK

          Well that saves me a comment. Seen them miss out current trajectory a lot.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Ranvier the Questioner‏ @RanvierQ Jan 14
          Replying to @GidMK

          Have you considered publishing your own study answering the same question, i.e. on the relative efficacy of lockdowns and their severity?

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Finger of Da God$‏ @TheAmazinRAD Jan 14
          Replying to @GidMK

          Why no official peer reviewed published rebuttal? Is Twitter the new official scientific Journal platform?

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. Allconsidered‏ @Allconsidered1 Jan 14
          Replying to @GidMK

          There was no lockdown or toughening of (the few) restrictions in Sweden from Spring to October 2020, and we see a curious constant linear drop in Covid cases/deaths to near zero in a 6 month period. This new paper may be the answer. Its not about lockdowns ?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Paul‏ @MorphRv Jan 14
          Replying to @GidMK

          @threadreaderapp unroll pls!

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Thread Reader Unroll Helper‏ @UnrollHelper Jan 14
          Replying to @MorphRv

          Namaste, here is your unroll: A new paper has been published by John Ioannidis and Jay "Great Barrington Declaration" Bhattacharya on "lockdowns" as… https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1349164532627693570.html … See you soon. 🤖

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. Austin Reid‏ @mengersponge Jan 15
          Replying to @GidMK

          “Funding/Support The study was funded with support from the Stanford COVID-19 Seroprevalence Studies Fund.” Sure sounds like the same pot of industry cash that led to this:https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/stephaniemlee/stanford-coronavirus-neeleman-ioannidis-whistleblower …

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Birgit Beinsen‏ @bb_Graz Jan 16
          Replying to @GidMK

          @threadreaderapp unroll please!

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Thread Reader App‏ @threadreaderapp Jan 16
          Replying to @bb_Graz

          Namaste, the unroll you asked for: A new paper has been published by John Ioannidis and Jay "Great Barrington Declaration" Bhattacharya on "lockdowns" as… https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1349164532627693570.html … Enjoy :) 🤖

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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