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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Tom Whipple‏Verified account @whippletom Jan 13

      Tom Whipple Retweeted Jeremy Farrar

      Could the manaus variant explain the fact the pandemic is raging still in the one city that we thought had herd immunity? Is it escaping immunity?https://twitter.com/JeremyFarrar/status/1349106416343281665 …

      Tom Whipple added,

      Jeremy FarrarVerified account @JeremyFarrar
      Important report. Manaus largest city in Amazon region severely hit COVID-19 pandemic with estimated SARS-CoV-2 attack rate ~75% by Oct 2020. Still suffering & where new variants may emerge & transmit despite high seroprevalence & presumed immunity. https://virological.org/t/genomic-characterisation-of-an-emergent-sars-cov-2-lineage-in-manaus-preliminary-findings/586 …
      Show this thread
      10 replies 7 retweets 31 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 13
      Replying to @whippletom

      I reckon the most likely explanation is that the seroprevalence study used to estimate the very high attack rate was biased (it was done on blood donors) and thus the AR was actually quite a bit lower than ~75%

      6:42 PM - 13 Jan 2021
      • 1 Retweet
      • 14 Likes
      • Stephen Dugmore derafeynman Leisha O'Brien Ann Brocklehurst Roberto Pereira Ketofan1000 Jerzy Samolej Tom Whipple 💧 Ian "Department of Diseasology" 🍩 Musgrave
      2 replies 1 retweet 14 likes
        1. Michael Harper‏ @DrMichaelHarper Jan 13
          Replying to @GidMK @whippletom

          I've reached some dark places on Twitter over the past few weeks, with people claiming complex conspiracies AND then saying it is Occam's Razor. It is refreshing seeing logical yet simple explanations from someone who knows their ****

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        2. Dr Rob Whitehurst‏ @OYCar Jan 13
          Replying to @GidMK @whippletom

          Dr Rob Whitehurst Retweeted Mário Adolfo Filho

          Current ICU admissions are now 50% above the peak of the first wave; and burials are also higher than 1st peak. So very approximately if this is the peak infection rate at an HIT of 60% and no reinfections 1st wave must have been at about 25% attack rate.https://mobile.twitter.com/marioadolfo/status/1349498117058658313 …

          Dr Rob Whitehurst added,

          Mário Adolfo FilhoVerified account @marioadolfo
          Nesta quarta-feira Manaus bateu todos os recordes de sepultamentos em um só dia. Foram 198 enterrros neste 13/01/2021 - anteriormente o dia mais trágico era 26/04/2020, com 167. Já são 1.486 sepultamentos só neste mês e não fechamos nem na primeira quinzena. Foto: Alex Pazuello pic.twitter.com/Y4Epbm5r26
          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Dr Rob Whitehurst‏ @OYCar Jan 13
          Replying to @OYCar @GidMK @whippletom

          Other explanations: HIT is much higher than 60% and so basic reproductive number R > 2.5; or IFR is higher than reported in the literature; or there are reinfections occurring. Three bad options to chose from.

          3 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
        4. Show replies

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