Could the manaus variant explain the fact the pandemic is raging still in the one city that we thought had herd immunity? Is it escaping immunity?https://twitter.com/JeremyFarrar/status/1349106416343281665 …
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I've reached some dark places on Twitter over the past few weeks, with people claiming complex conspiracies AND then saying it is Occam's Razor. It is refreshing seeing logical yet simple explanations from someone who knows their ****
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Current ICU admissions are now 50% above the peak of the first wave; and burials are also higher than 1st peak. So very approximately if this is the peak infection rate at an HIT of 60% and no reinfections 1st wave must have been at about 25% attack rate.https://mobile.twitter.com/marioadolfo/status/1349498117058658313 …
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Other explanations: HIT is much higher than 60% and so basic reproductive number R > 2.5; or IFR is higher than reported in the literature; or there are reinfections occurring. Three bad options to chose from.
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