13/n There's also nothing in this paper about lags for any policy for implementation, how policies were associated with dates etc That's a huge issue!
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14/n We know that the lag between policy introduction, implementation, and outcome is not immediate, and this is likely to vary by country, so simply comparing them day-by-day as this paper appears to doesn't really give us any indication of their impact
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15/n Furthermore, the lrNPIs themselves are really poorly elucidated. This is FAR from a fair summation of the complex and detailed work South Korea put in to controlling COVID-19!pic.twitter.com/razBpmmN8h
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16/n I mean, reading the paper you might get the impression that all South Korea did was some optional social distancing, emergency declaration, and case quarantine, rather than a coordinated and multi-step approach including HUGE healthcare investment
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17/n There's also not much effort to disentangle the complexities of the marginal benefit of each intervention, unlike previous research. It's likely, for example, that closing schools in Sweden (that did little else) had a huge impact...
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18/n ...but that this was not as effective as in Italy, which had many interventions
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19/n The authors also use some fairly inappropriate causal language throughout. These are the potential benefits ASSOCIATED WITH the announcement of policies in each place, we certainly can't infer a causal impact herepic.twitter.com/RXGpCijYlD
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20/n In other words, there are innumerable confounding factors that may have made the interventions more/less effective, like the age structure of the population, how socially distanced they were pre-pandemic etc...
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21/n At best, this study provides us with some evidence that mrNPIs are not associated with a large marginal benefit in terms of case numbers over lnNPIs, when comparing a tiny group of dissimilar nations
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Replying to @GidMK
the terms had me puzzled Isn't that maybe a bit of an arbitrary categorization? mrNPI == more restrictive NPI lrNPI== less restrictive NPI
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Totally arbitrary, largely meaningless and subjective
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