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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

      4/n The basic findings are that, compared to South Korea and Sweden, the marginal impact of implementing mrNPIs was not possible to discern in this study In other words, "lockdowns" don't have a significant marginal benefit over a suite of other measurespic.twitter.com/ZvhlhvUdJV

      2 replies 11 retweets 86 likes
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    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

      5/n This has actually been shown before, using much larger datasets and more rigorous (but still imperfect) analyses, so it's a bit odd that this particular paper has been seized on so much https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/12/15/science.abd9338 …pic.twitter.com/6mFveAJKeE

      6 replies 14 retweets 114 likes
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    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

      6/n I should also say I have something of an intellectual conflict of interest here, because the authors conclude something that I've been saying since March - the interventions pursued may be less important than the way that they are implementedpic.twitter.com/Geu1J3TtwJ

      3 replies 14 retweets 144 likes
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    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

      7/n All that being said, what's the science here Well, it's a bit...lacklustre reallypic.twitter.com/I1QmHqb1j3

      2 replies 7 retweets 78 likes
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    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

      8/n The sample size is minuscule. 8 mrNPI and 2 lnNPI countries is far too few to make any realistic conclusions about much, especially given how wildly different these countries arepic.twitter.com/1I91oGQfBh

      2 replies 9 retweets 134 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

      9/n The authors claim that they used these countries because those were the only ones where they could get data for each administrative region, but if that's the case then they really can't have looked very hardpic.twitter.com/41d7yh4dy0

      2 replies 9 retweets 121 likes
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    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

      10/n Off the top of my head, I can name at least half a dozen other countries for which case/policy data is available by day in every administrative region. Switzerland, Australia, New Zealand, China, Brazil, etc

      6 replies 10 retweets 143 likes
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    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

      11/n Indeed, going by the references that the authors cite, this issue may have arisen because they used Statista as their primary source for case data, which is...not idealpic.twitter.com/W34W1uThYe

      1 reply 7 retweets 122 likes
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    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

      12/n The definition of restrictions is also a bit weird. I mean, South Korea didn't forcibly close businesses, but they do have national legislation allowing practices that many countries would find very restrictive (as the references the authors cite show)pic.twitter.com/TzQWN8J2EF

      3 replies 4 retweets 107 likes
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    10. Jacob Gudiol‏Verified account @JacobGudiol Jan 12
      Replying to @GidMK

      South Korea have closed businesses several times. Right now some are closed and a lot of them have quite severe restrictions in placehttp://m.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20210112000709&np=2&mp=1 …

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12
      Replying to @JacobGudiol

      Wow, that's all...pretty bad. The paper is even worse than I thought!

      11:16 PM - 12 Jan 2021
      • 1 Like
      • (((Asa Zernik)))
      0 replies 0 retweets 1 like

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