I understand where you are coming from, but I think you are overestimating the transferability of COVID-policies and their effects on outcomes. Policies are inherently dependent on time and context. The exact same measures will get you different results in different contexts. 1/https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1349118475239755776 …
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We can't really explain the difference between Asia and EU. Taiwan: one of the "softest" measures in the world, few tests performed, with a test positivity of 40%(!), but border control. Yearly flu deaths rarely exceed a couple of hundred. What can be inferred? 2/pic.twitter.com/3H5Tfo3pwJ
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Finland: good track and trace, reacted early as their cases were lagging due to less integration, again among the softest policy response in EU, but with consistently the lowest numbers. Digitalization rate on a different planet compared to Germany. What does that tell us? 3/pic.twitter.com/BtkhKddA7x
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We have a massive confounding/endogeneity problem in these analyses. If we take China's Economic policy and apply it to another country we would never expect the same results. Adopting the Finnish education policy will not give you similar PISA results, maybe not even close. 4/
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Adopting NZ/Aus/ or Taiwan approaches will in many places not lead to a similar level of success. We can learn, and I applaud NZ/AUS success. But we cannot ignore the structural, cultural, and geographic contexts in which policy decisions are embedded that influence outcomes. 5/
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Saying "You can achieve Y by doing what X did" might work sometimes, but often might not, because of other variables that can't be transferred. So even if you choose to control with similar tools, you might fail - as many have done. It's like you say: one size doesn't fit all. /6
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Replying to @KaiSchulze_
Hm, might have to tweak the language slightly. I'm not trying to say that there is a one-size-fits all policy for control, just that there are clearly ways to control the pandemic and that frameworks exist to implement such measures pretty much anywhere
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Replying to @GidMK
I think I understand, it also depends on what you define as control. If NZ/AUS/Taiwan type control is meant I would fundamentally question it can be replicated in regions such as EU. Again, not wanting to question success or being Eurocentric.
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Replying to @KaiSchulze_
Maybe, but then I think SK, Uruguay, Vietnam etc could provide other good models. The main point I was trying to make is that it's clear that it CAN be done, what's not clear is whether this is a good thing
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Replying to @GidMK
Yes :) I am questioning the CAN, depending on your definition of control. If defined as VN/NZ/AUS, even if you attempt, there might be no path to a similar outcome. VN I am not sure what to make of tbh, SK is indeed really interesting. Will see how Uruguay plays out after rise
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You don't think that it is possible to implement such measures in the EU? I would say given the previous successes with more severe restrictions that it's definitely possible, although perhaps more costly
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Replying to @GidMK
Some countries have similar or even more restrictive measures than in spring, have a look at the stringency index. Measures in European winter have largely different effects than in spring, for many reasons. I honestly don’t see what can be done to bring cases to low cases (now).
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Replying to @KaiSchulze_
Oh that I don't disagree with, but I think the epidemic is also more advanced now than it was in spring. I do agree that there is probably a waning effect of some of the more restrictive policies, but there are also some interventions that haven't really been attempted
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