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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Dmitry Kobak‏ @hippopedoid Jan 6
      Replying to @GidMK @zorinaq

      They do look similar in the figure, but I think the quote refers to the age-integrated estimates for different countries as listed in the Table. E.g. for Italy: ENE-COVID / COVID: US CDC /COVID: Verity / COVID: Levin 1.065 /1.092 / 1.382 / 2.177 This does look different.

      3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    2. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan Jan 6
      Replying to @hippopedoid @GidMK @zorinaq

      Atomsk's Sanakan Retweeted Atomsk's Sanakan

      Re: "ENE-COVID" As noted, ENE-COVID leaves out nursing home deaths. https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1332799077122248706 … The CDC analysis leaves out those 80 and older. https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1310242459235090434 … Verity et al. worked from the Diamond Princess, and under-estimated deaths therehttps://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1289061193471201281 …

      Atomsk's Sanakan added,

      Atomsk's Sanakan @AtomsksSanakan
      Why didn't Ferguson et al. over-estimate IFR? 1) Verity et al. predict 12-13 deaths on the Diamond Princess, at a time when only 7 deaths had happened. 2) Verity et al use 12-13 for IFR. 3) Ferguson et al use Verity et al's IFR work. 4) 14 deaths happen https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1283302606065020928 …
      Show this thread
      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    3. Dmitry Kobak‏ @hippopedoid Jan 6
      Replying to @AtomsksSanakan @GidMK @zorinaq

      Hmm. Thanks. I am a bit confused about ENE-COVID because here in Lancet https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31483-5/fulltext … I don't see any mentions of the nursing home deaths excluded... but here in BMJ https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4509 … they are indeed stated as excluded.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan Jan 6
      Replying to @hippopedoid @GidMK @zorinaq

      Levin et al. includes an IFR for Spain where nursing home deaths are put back in. That gave an IFR of ~1.9%, given the death lag used in Levin et al. for confirmed deaths. The BMJ ENE-COVID paper instead gave an IFR of ~0.8%. https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4509 … https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-020-00698-1 …pic.twitter.com/bex9gzjLe3

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    5. Dmitry Kobak‏ @hippopedoid Jan 7
      Replying to @AtomsksSanakan @GidMK @zorinaq

      I don't understand how Levin et al. got 1.9% for Spain. Seroprevalence was 5.0%, that's 2.3 mln people: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31483-5/fulltext …. Cumulative covid fatalities even 5 weeks later were only 28k (Table 2 in Levin et al.) That's IFR=1.2%. Even when I take 40k excess deaths, I get 1.7%.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Dmitry Kobak‏ @hippopedoid Jan 8
      Replying to @hippopedoid @AtomsksSanakan and

      @GidMK I'd be very grateful if you could clarify the above question! Thanks.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 8
      Replying to @hippopedoid @AtomsksSanakan @zorinaq

      I'll have to check with my co-authors, I did not do the calculations for that graph 👍

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    8. Dmitry Kobak‏ @hippopedoid Jan 8
      Replying to @GidMK @AtomsksSanakan @zorinaq

      Thanks! But I can also write an email to the corresponding authors if that's more convenient.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 8
      Replying to @hippopedoid @AtomsksSanakan @zorinaq

      I am one of the corresponding authors lol

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    10. Dmitry Kobak‏ @hippopedoid Jan 9
      Replying to @GidMK @AtomsksSanakan @zorinaq

      Dmitry Kobak Retweeted Dmitry Kobak

      The only one actually! :-) Unrelated: this might interest you guys. I'm trying to build an infrastructure to update this regularly.https://twitter.com/hippopedoid/status/1347655523861229568 …

      Dmitry Kobak added,

      Dmitry Kobak @hippopedoid
      Excess mortality mega figure. The latest data from @HMDatabase, CDC, FT (@jburnmurdoch), NYT (@atmccann), The Economist (@J_CD_T) + Iran, Ukraine, Armenia, Georgia. Shows excess mortality, % from annual, per 100k, and undercount. Code: https://github.com/dkobak/excess-mortality … pic.twitter.com/PJ7l63vZje
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12
      Replying to @hippopedoid @AtomsksSanakan @zorinaq

      Sorry, completely forgot to get back to you! The main divergence in our Spanish estimate, according to Prof Levin, is that we took pains to include nursing home deaths, which are opaquely reported in Spanish data

      5:44 PM - 12 Jan 2021
      • 2 Likes
      • Dmitry Kobak Atomsk's Sanakan
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Dmitry Kobak‏ @hippopedoid Jan 13
          Replying to @GidMK @AtomsksSanakan @zorinaq

          Thanks a lot. This makes sense, but where did the number of the nursing home covid deaths (in addition to the official covid death count) come from?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Dmitry Kobak‏ @hippopedoid Jan 15
          Replying to @hippopedoid @GidMK and

          Coming back to this @GidMK: I checked your Appendix F and it says: "Spain had 29137 [confirmed deaths], including 9909 deaths in nursing homes. [...] We used those proportions to allocate [...] [9909 to] age groups". But you'd need 44k deaths to get IFR~1.9% in Fig 6. Not 29k.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies

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