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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

      15/n Furthermore, the lrNPIs themselves are really poorly elucidated. This is FAR from a fair summation of the complex and detailed work South Korea put in to controlling COVID-19!pic.twitter.com/razBpmmN8h

      1 reply 5 retweets 97 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

      16/n I mean, reading the paper you might get the impression that all South Korea did was some optional social distancing, emergency declaration, and case quarantine, rather than a coordinated and multi-step approach including HUGE healthcare investment

      3 replies 12 retweets 175 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

      17/n There's also not much effort to disentangle the complexities of the marginal benefit of each intervention, unlike previous research. It's likely, for example, that closing schools in Sweden (that did little else) had a huge impact...

      5 replies 9 retweets 105 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

      18/n ...but that this was not as effective as in Italy, which had many interventions

      1 reply 6 retweets 83 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

      19/n The authors also use some fairly inappropriate causal language throughout. These are the potential benefits ASSOCIATED WITH the announcement of policies in each place, we certainly can't infer a causal impact herepic.twitter.com/RXGpCijYlD

      1 reply 9 retweets 112 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

      20/n In other words, there are innumerable confounding factors that may have made the interventions more/less effective, like the age structure of the population, how socially distanced they were pre-pandemic etc...

      1 reply 8 retweets 110 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

      21/n At best, this study provides us with some evidence that mrNPIs are not associated with a large marginal benefit in terms of case numbers over lnNPIs, when comparing a tiny group of dissimilar nations

      2 replies 8 retweets 95 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

      22/n More realistically, I think we can probably say that the paper tells us little useful except that analysing the impact of NPIs generally is extremely hard

      3 replies 14 retweets 142 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

      23/n This is a bit of a shame, because I actually agree wholeheartedly with the authors that there is a cost to restrictive NPIs, and the marginal benefit of (say) stay-at-home orders is likely to be quite small in many circumstances

      2 replies 8 retweets 92 likes
      Show this thread
    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

      24/n That being said, this paper just doesn't tell us anything useful about these mrNPIs beyond some more very vague evidence that they may not be as beneficial on top of other interventions (maybe)

      1 reply 6 retweets 79 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

      25/n Ultimately, the authors may have failed to find a benefit of business closures or stay-at-home orders, but the methodology used just doesn't give us enough information to say much, if anything, conclusivelypic.twitter.com/0yrwOfkA4q

      5:21 PM - 12 Jan 2021
      • 12 Retweets
      • 124 Likes
      • Dženan Smajić Rochedo Gian Felipe de lima Tânia Madella Matthew S. Conway Jim Laura Hollister Martin Eder
      8 replies 12 retweets 124 likes
        1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 13

          Health Nerd Retweeted Andreas Backhaus

          26/n Some more issues with the study, which gets worse and worse the more you look at it!https://twitter.com/AndreasShrugged/status/1349464781145731073?s=20 …

          Health Nerd added,

          Andreas Backhaus @AndreasShrugged
          There's a new paper by John Ioannidis and co-authors that's intended to push their anti-lockdown message by performing a flimsy empirical analysis. Adding to @GidMK's thread, I will just highlight one flaw that should have prevented this paper from being published but hasn't. pic.twitter.com/nn6MKQd96l
          Show this thread
          16 replies 12 retweets 92 likes
          Show this thread
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        2. JoDBs‏ @Joelmontpetit1 Jan 12
          Replying to @GidMK

          @threadreaderapp unroll

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Thread Reader Unroll Helper‏ @UnrollHelper Jan 12
          Replying to @Joelmontpetit1

          Bonjour, the unroll you asked for: A new paper has been published by John Ioannidis and Jay "Great Barrington Declaration" Bhattacharya on "lockdowns" as… https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1349164532627693570.html … Share this if you think it's interesting. 🤖

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. stupmed‏ @stupmed Jan 12
          Replying to @GidMK

          You forgot to mention them quoting that US pupils lost 5.5 million life years because of a teachers strike in Argentinia in the 70s.

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        3. Ilya Kashnitsky‏ @ikashnitsky Jan 13
          Replying to @stupmed @GidMK

          Ilya Kashnitsky Retweeted Ilya Kashnitsky

          Great catch! Although, don't forget to update you knowledge about this brilliant piece of science – according to the corrected version, the estimate is now ~12.5m 🤣 see the 2nd figure here 👇https://twitter.com/ikashnitsky/status/1348767939709829124 …

          Ilya Kashnitsky added,

          Ilya Kashnitsky @ikashnitsky
          Two months since the publication, our critique w/ @GidMK (http://osf.io/9yqxw ) caused the authors to revise the (remember, thoroughly peer-reviewed) paper and publish a correction THREAD tl;dr: retraction is still the only way how it started: how it's going: pic.twitter.com/QFCpWdH0w5
          Show this thread
          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. Allconsidered‏ @Allconsidered1 Jan 13
          Replying to @GidMK

          Your criticisms center in that you believe the authors are not able to give us enough information to say much. I, and many others disagree but please share equivalent studies of recent, updated data which demonstrate effectiveness of (untested pre-2020) NPIs.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Philippe Herbel‏ @HerbelPhilippe Jan 13
          Replying to @GidMK

          Unroll @threadreaderapp

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Thread Reader App‏ @threadreaderapp Jan 13
          Replying to @HerbelPhilippe

          Hello, the unroll you asked for: A new paper has been published by John Ioannidis and Jay "Great Barrington Declaration" Bhattacharya on "lockdowns" as… https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1349164532627693570.html … Talk to you soon. 🤖

          0 replies 1 retweet 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. This Tweet is unavailable.
        2. Thread Reader Unroll Helper‏ @UnrollHelper Jan 13
          Replying to @ScoobyShakespe1

          Hello, the unroll you asked for: A new paper has been published by John Ioannidis and Jay "Great Barrington Declaration" Bhattacharya on "lockdowns" as… https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1349164532627693570.html … Share this if you think it's interesting. 🤖

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. End of conversation

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