13/n There's also nothing in this paper about lags for any policy for implementation, how policies were associated with dates etc That's a huge issue!
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24/n That being said, this paper just doesn't tell us anything useful about these mrNPIs beyond some more very vague evidence that they may not be as beneficial on top of other interventions (maybe)
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25/n Ultimately, the authors may have failed to find a benefit of business closures or stay-at-home orders, but the methodology used just doesn't give us enough information to say much, if anything, conclusivelypic.twitter.com/0yrwOfkA4q
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26/n Some more issues with the study, which gets worse and worse the more you look at it!https://twitter.com/AndreasShrugged/status/1349464781145731073?s=20 …
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End of conversation
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"Cost" of NPIs always must be considered as a counterfactual. "Cost" MUST be measured vs. the "costs" of the pandemic absent the NPIs. Such a counterfactual evaluation is, obviously, INCREDIBLY complicated and has same problem cross-nationally with controlling for confounds.
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