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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

      9/n The authors claim that they used these countries because those were the only ones where they could get data for each administrative region, but if that's the case then they really can't have looked very hardpic.twitter.com/41d7yh4dy0

      2 replies 9 retweets 121 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

      10/n Off the top of my head, I can name at least half a dozen other countries for which case/policy data is available by day in every administrative region. Switzerland, Australia, New Zealand, China, Brazil, etc

      6 replies 10 retweets 143 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

      11/n Indeed, going by the references that the authors cite, this issue may have arisen because they used Statista as their primary source for case data, which is...not idealpic.twitter.com/W34W1uThYe

      1 reply 7 retweets 122 likes
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    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

      12/n The definition of restrictions is also a bit weird. I mean, South Korea didn't forcibly close businesses, but they do have national legislation allowing practices that many countries would find very restrictive (as the references the authors cite show)pic.twitter.com/TzQWN8J2EF

      3 replies 4 retweets 107 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

      13/n There's also nothing in this paper about lags for any policy for implementation, how policies were associated with dates etc That's a huge issue!

      5 replies 6 retweets 146 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

      14/n We know that the lag between policy introduction, implementation, and outcome is not immediate, and this is likely to vary by country, so simply comparing them day-by-day as this paper appears to doesn't really give us any indication of their impact

      1 reply 4 retweets 117 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

      15/n Furthermore, the lrNPIs themselves are really poorly elucidated. This is FAR from a fair summation of the complex and detailed work South Korea put in to controlling COVID-19!pic.twitter.com/razBpmmN8h

      1 reply 5 retweets 97 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

      16/n I mean, reading the paper you might get the impression that all South Korea did was some optional social distancing, emergency declaration, and case quarantine, rather than a coordinated and multi-step approach including HUGE healthcare investment

      3 replies 12 retweets 175 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

      17/n There's also not much effort to disentangle the complexities of the marginal benefit of each intervention, unlike previous research. It's likely, for example, that closing schools in Sweden (that did little else) had a huge impact...

      5 replies 9 retweets 105 likes
      Show this thread
    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

      18/n ...but that this was not as effective as in Italy, which had many interventions

      1 reply 6 retweets 83 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

      19/n The authors also use some fairly inappropriate causal language throughout. These are the potential benefits ASSOCIATED WITH the announcement of policies in each place, we certainly can't infer a causal impact herepic.twitter.com/RXGpCijYlD

      5:21 PM - 12 Jan 2021
      • 9 Retweets
      • 112 Likes
      • Matteo Villa Magnus Grinell Rochedo Felipe de lima Tânia Madella Jim Laura Hollister Andrés Monchu Ichariba-Chode
      1 reply 9 retweets 112 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

          20/n In other words, there are innumerable confounding factors that may have made the interventions more/less effective, like the age structure of the population, how socially distanced they were pre-pandemic etc...

          1 reply 8 retweets 110 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

          21/n At best, this study provides us with some evidence that mrNPIs are not associated with a large marginal benefit in terms of case numbers over lnNPIs, when comparing a tiny group of dissimilar nations

          2 replies 8 retweets 95 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

          22/n More realistically, I think we can probably say that the paper tells us little useful except that analysing the impact of NPIs generally is extremely hard

          3 replies 14 retweets 142 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

          23/n This is a bit of a shame, because I actually agree wholeheartedly with the authors that there is a cost to restrictive NPIs, and the marginal benefit of (say) stay-at-home orders is likely to be quite small in many circumstances

          2 replies 8 retweets 92 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

          24/n That being said, this paper just doesn't tell us anything useful about these mrNPIs beyond some more very vague evidence that they may not be as beneficial on top of other interventions (maybe)

          1 reply 6 retweets 79 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 12

          25/n Ultimately, the authors may have failed to find a benefit of business closures or stay-at-home orders, but the methodology used just doesn't give us enough information to say much, if anything, conclusivelypic.twitter.com/0yrwOfkA4q

          8 replies 12 retweets 124 likes
          Show this thread
        8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 13

          Health Nerd Retweeted Andreas Backhaus

          26/n Some more issues with the study, which gets worse and worse the more you look at it!https://twitter.com/AndreasShrugged/status/1349464781145731073?s=20 …

          Health Nerd added,

          Andreas Backhaus @AndreasShrugged
          There's a new paper by John Ioannidis and co-authors that's intended to push their anti-lockdown message by performing a flimsy empirical analysis. Adding to @GidMK's thread, I will just highlight one flaw that should have prevented this paper from being published but hasn't. pic.twitter.com/nn6MKQd96l
          Show this thread
          16 replies 12 retweets 92 likes
          Show this thread
        9. End of conversation

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