8/n The sample size is minuscule. 8 mrNPI and 2 lnNPI countries is far too few to make any realistic conclusions about much, especially given how wildly different these countries arepic.twitter.com/1I91oGQfBh
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19/n The authors also use some fairly inappropriate causal language throughout. These are the potential benefits ASSOCIATED WITH the announcement of policies in each place, we certainly can't infer a causal impact herepic.twitter.com/RXGpCijYlD
20/n In other words, there are innumerable confounding factors that may have made the interventions more/less effective, like the age structure of the population, how socially distanced they were pre-pandemic etc...
21/n At best, this study provides us with some evidence that mrNPIs are not associated with a large marginal benefit in terms of case numbers over lnNPIs, when comparing a tiny group of dissimilar nations
22/n More realistically, I think we can probably say that the paper tells us little useful except that analysing the impact of NPIs generally is extremely hard
23/n This is a bit of a shame, because I actually agree wholeheartedly with the authors that there is a cost to restrictive NPIs, and the marginal benefit of (say) stay-at-home orders is likely to be quite small in many circumstances
24/n That being said, this paper just doesn't tell us anything useful about these mrNPIs beyond some more very vague evidence that they may not be as beneficial on top of other interventions (maybe)
25/n Ultimately, the authors may have failed to find a benefit of business closures or stay-at-home orders, but the methodology used just doesn't give us enough information to say much, if anything, conclusivelypic.twitter.com/0yrwOfkA4q
26/n Some more issues with the study, which gets worse and worse the more you look at it!https://twitter.com/AndreasShrugged/status/1349464781145731073?s=20 …
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