7/n All that being said, what's the science here Well, it's a bit...lacklustre reallypic.twitter.com/I1QmHqb1j3
-
-
18/n ...but that this was not as effective as in Italy, which had many interventions
Show this thread -
19/n The authors also use some fairly inappropriate causal language throughout. These are the potential benefits ASSOCIATED WITH the announcement of policies in each place, we certainly can't infer a causal impact herepic.twitter.com/RXGpCijYlD
Show this thread -
20/n In other words, there are innumerable confounding factors that may have made the interventions more/less effective, like the age structure of the population, how socially distanced they were pre-pandemic etc...
Show this thread -
21/n At best, this study provides us with some evidence that mrNPIs are not associated with a large marginal benefit in terms of case numbers over lnNPIs, when comparing a tiny group of dissimilar nations
Show this thread -
22/n More realistically, I think we can probably say that the paper tells us little useful except that analysing the impact of NPIs generally is extremely hard
Show this thread -
23/n This is a bit of a shame, because I actually agree wholeheartedly with the authors that there is a cost to restrictive NPIs, and the marginal benefit of (say) stay-at-home orders is likely to be quite small in many circumstances
Show this thread -
24/n That being said, this paper just doesn't tell us anything useful about these mrNPIs beyond some more very vague evidence that they may not be as beneficial on top of other interventions (maybe)
Show this thread -
25/n Ultimately, the authors may have failed to find a benefit of business closures or stay-at-home orders, but the methodology used just doesn't give us enough information to say much, if anything, conclusivelypic.twitter.com/0yrwOfkA4q
Show this thread -
26/n Some more issues with the study, which gets worse and worse the more you look at it!https://twitter.com/AndreasShrugged/status/1349464781145731073?s=20 …
Show this thread
End of conversation
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.