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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 10

      15/n I mean, using a paper that says "there is no relationship between missed schooling and mortality" to support your argument that there is a relationship between schooling and mortality is...something

      2 replies 8 retweets 75 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 10

      16/n But this brings us back to the results. Either missed days of schooling cost 0.8 (0.1-2.4) million YLL or 13.8 (2.5-42.1) million YLL Why the massive divergence?pic.twitter.com/RgPgiyDoRY

      1 reply 1 retweet 35 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 10

      17/n Well, if you use the incorrect estimates from Mazumder/Lleras-Muney, you get an average of a 45% reduction in RELATIVE RISK OF DEATH AT EVERY AGE per year of schooling This is hilariously implausiblepic.twitter.com/Mt8CSd9t4T

      1 reply 3 retweets 48 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 10

      18/n For context, this would mean that adding 3 years of schooling for every child would reduce their risk of death to literally 0% for the rest of their lives, effectively rendering them immortal

      4 replies 8 retweets 93 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 10

      19/n The authors justify this with some dubious language about how US studies are more similar than Nordic ones, despite the fact that the US studies are based on legal changes in 1919 and 1939, at which time the US was (for example) still segregatedpic.twitter.com/5aLTJeV05C

      1 reply 1 retweet 41 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 10

      20/n It is also very strange that the authors are happy to use evidence from an Argentinian study on children markedly different from those in the US but balk at studies on European children It seems an obvious contradiction

      3 replies 1 retweet 46 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 10

      21/n Nevertheless, what we now have is a study that, weirdly, says that either school closures have cost very few YLL or a wildly absurd overestimate, depending on whether you limit your analysis to only the studies that the authors prefer arbitrarily to usepic.twitter.com/jCRTXAJtzq

      1 reply 1 retweet 35 likes
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    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 10

      22/n Many of the other obvious flaws in the paper remain uncorrected, and I'd urge you to read our full critique if you're interested:https://osf.io/9yqxw/ 

      1 reply 7 retweets 50 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 10

      23/n That being said, it is worth saying that the authors and journal have at least taken ~some~ action here, and correcting the mathematically impossible model is a good first step for this paper

      1 reply 0 retweets 35 likes
      Show this thread
    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 10

      24/n My hope is that now we can further correct the other obvious mistakes and issues, and come to a more realistic estimation, because this paper is currently impacting policy on an international scale And it is still simply wrong

      1 reply 7 retweets 53 likes
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      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 10

      25/n I also think it's worth noting the process it took to get this paper corrected even this far The original response from the lead author and journal editor was, to quote exactly, "you are not right just because you think you are"

      5:37 PM - 10 Jan 2021
      • 2 Retweets
      • 47 Likes
      • Mizzy T 🐝💙🇪🇺🏳️‍🌈 Mike Wortley SMH Greed kills the soul. Laura Brianna, DrPH MPH MGIS Cass-a-Nora ellabrand💙 Melanie Hohertz Maaike Verbruggen
      1 reply 2 retweets 47 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 10

          26/n This was after @ikashnitsky and I pointed out that the paper was MATHEMATICALLY IMPOSSIBLE Quite a worrying way to respond

          1 reply 3 retweets 56 likes
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        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 10

          27/n After we published our preprint critique, and it was reported on in the Guardian, we were told to submit a comment on the piece as soon as possible online and they'd get back to ushttps://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/dec/08/coronavirus-study-that-found-us-school-closures-cut-life-expectancy-criticised-by-epidemiologist …

          1 reply 8 retweets 39 likes
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        4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 10

          28/n Two months after the initial emails, and over a month after we submitted the comment, we have this correction published Unfortunately, the study has already had an enormous impact, and changed lives across the world

          1 reply 7 retweets 44 likes
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        5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 10

          29/n You will probably be interested @stephaniemlee @MelissaLDavey @apsmunro @DrZoeHyde @devisridhar @DFisman

          2 replies 2 retweets 23 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 10

          30/n Overall, what we have is a paper where the mathematically impossible results have been removed, but is still flawed in numerous ways and useless as evidence for decision-making

          1 reply 5 retweets 40 likes
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        7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 10

          31/n The sad fact is that the approach the authors took, if implemented correctly, probably would not have found that school closures cost more YLL than COVID-19

          1 reply 2 retweets 25 likes
          Show this thread
        8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 10

          32/n This DOESN'T MEAN that school closures are a good thing, necessarily, but YLL is a measure inherently geared towards measuring people who have already died, and it's just not likely that closing schools has cost so much of this metric

          4 replies 3 retweets 45 likes
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        9. End of conversation

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