Think I’d take a sero over estimate rather than lots of reinfections though.
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Excess deaths yield a 50 to 60 % estimate of the attack rate. The seroprevalence estimate was 76% which is a bit suspect. Clearly HIT is over 50% and this is just Doug aka D614G. His mate
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How is it possible? I thought IFR was roughly what was expected with this Attack rate in Manaus age demographics? Tests for antibodies were false positives?
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I know these were estimates adjusted with seroreversion but still a large proportion of pop had been infected, even without seroreversion taken in account infected? That should slow the epidemic?
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I'd say blood donors are a quite self-selecting group, not necessarily representative of a population. Also, it naturally excludes all u18s and o65s.
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My daughter’s uni friend just tested positive again after having covid in late October. He wasn’t asymptomatic the first time & had it worse than the 17 others diagnosed in his friendship group. So far only bad headache but early days. Lives in Kent area. Worrying
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Rt had been around 1 in Manaus for many months, and now Christmas changes things. Similar story elsewhere in the world right now that was slowly opening over months after having very high infection rates.
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The idea that south american countries or even hard hit regions overshot herd immunity never made sense looking at mobility data and seeing Rt never going much below 1.
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Also more strong evidence that herd immunity through infection was never a realistic aim