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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Dec 31

      "False positives are driving the pandemic!" In NSW last week we tested 332,000 people and found 95 positive cases. If every case was a false positive (unlikely) then the false positive rate is 95/332,000 = 0.028% The "casedemic" is nonsense. It's simple mathspic.twitter.com/T0k2NXnkU0

      38 replies 123 retweets 477 likes
    2. Harper Lee  😊‏ @HarperL75661966 Jan 1
      Replying to @GidMK

      Are you sure they’re not retesting positives in NSW? Maybe they are and have eliminated false positives by the time we, the public, get the case numbers. That would be the logical thing to do to ensure it isn’t a casedemic.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 1
      Replying to @HarperL75661966

      Many positives are retested at some point, but they are reported after one positive test

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Harper Lee  😊‏ @HarperL75661966 Jan 1
      Replying to @GidMK

      Why at some point, and not in the 24 hour window? So much time could be saved not chasing contacts of false positive cases.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 1
      Replying to @HarperL75661966

      If it's a suspected FP the the test is usually rerun quickly, but given the false positive rate is negligible it's just not that important to instantly rerun every positive test

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 1
      Replying to @GidMK @HarperL75661966

      We get about one confirmed false positive per million tests run, so it's not like we need to save time that urgently

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Harper Lee  😊‏ @HarperL75661966 Jan 1
      Replying to @GidMK

      The fact you don’t know the exact FPR is precisely why they should be retested. It would help to rule out all the questions people are quite naturally asking about the accuracy of the tests. Surely there’s nothing to loose by doing it, or do you think accuracy unimportant?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 1
      Replying to @HarperL75661966

      We know that at absolute maximum the FP rate is 1 in ~10,000 tests. Given that many positive tests are rerun eventually, we know that the true FP rate is likely to be 1 in 100,000-1,000,000 tests. Knowing the exact value is unimportant when it's so low

      1:01 PM - 1 Jan 2021
      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Harper Lee  😊‏ @HarperL75661966 Jan 1
          Replying to @GidMK

          So you don’t know the FPR, just think it’s likely to be. When lockdowns are being instituted, and borders closed because of these tiny numbers of positive cases, it’s obviously negligent not to retest immediately, just to ensure the data is 100% accurate. @GladysB @BradHazzard

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 1
          Replying to @HarperL75661966 @GladysB @BradHazzard

          Sorry, I think you've misunderstood. Many/most positive cases are eventually retested (it's mandated for hotel quarantine) but just not immediately. And like I said, we don't need to know the exact number because it's so rare

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Harper Lee  😊‏ @HarperL75661966 Jan 1
          Replying to @GidMK

          Except IF it’s 1 in 10000 it could be extremely relevant here in NSW. If only there was some way of ensuring the data is accurate, preferably before we deny the rights of people in Australia to visit loved ones etc. Retest the handful of cases. It’s too hard is a crazy argument.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 1
          Replying to @HarperL75661966

          I mean, most people ARE retested, especially those in quarantine, so I'm not sure what you're trying to say

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies

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