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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Dec 31

      "False positives are driving the pandemic!" In NSW last week we tested 332,000 people and found 95 positive cases. If every case was a false positive (unlikely) then the false positive rate is 95/332,000 = 0.028% The "casedemic" is nonsense. It's simple mathspic.twitter.com/T0k2NXnkU0

      38 replies 123 retweets 477 likes
    2. Nick Brain‏ @NickBrain2 Dec 31
      Replying to @GidMK

      Do you know what the PCR cycle cut off you are using please?

      5 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    3. Interconnector‏ @Interconnector0 Dec 31
      Replying to @NickBrain2 @GidMK

      Is there any value in publishing PCR results without cycle threshold data? It seems superficial to me.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Johan Brynedal Öckinger‏ @ockinger Jan 1
      Replying to @Interconnector0 @NickBrain2 @GidMK

      Is there any use i reporting Ct values or cut offs, without also including assay, input volume of RNA, background correction algorithms, and threshold level?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. Interconnector‏ @Interconnector0 Jan 1
      Replying to @ockinger @NickBrain2 @GidMK

      Good question. It would be ideal for all of this information to be available. When conducting PCR testing, and holding all other factors equal, adjusting the Ct cutoff will have a material impact on the number of positive results.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Johan Brynedal Öckinger‏ @ockinger Jan 1
      Replying to @Interconnector0 @NickBrain2 @GidMK

      They all influence positivity rate. In particular the assay and its sensitivity, and threshold level. Why the fixation on cuf off Ct's?

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jan 1
      Replying to @ockinger @Interconnector0 @NickBrain2

      Because it is a trope that denialists have fixated on, convinced that there is some silver bullet that will prove the pandemic false. No one wants to hear that it's more complex than that

      12:52 PM - 1 Jan 2021
      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        1. Nick Brain‏ @NickBrain2 Jan 1
          Replying to @GidMK @ockinger @Interconnector0

          What would be your argument against, out of interest?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Nick Brain‏ @NickBrain2 Jan 1
          Replying to @GidMK @ockinger @Interconnector0

          Slightly deeper, ultimately I think denial happens because the alternative is so terrible. It seems that with the new variant, even the tightest possible lockdown is not enough to prevent rapid growth in the UK, and subsequent complete collapse of society. There's nothing left

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Jeremy Hume‏ @jeremy_hume Jan 1
          Replying to @NickBrain2 @GidMK and

          The lockdown in Spain was very strict. In Spain face coverings must be worn both inside and outdoors. Despite this Spanish cases skyrocketed throughout October. Mandatory social distancing and mask wearing do not work. Boris's coronavirus restrictions will achieve nothing.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation

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