12/n Statement 5 is again a fact. Reinfections happen, and the reference is a case study of one of these. How often this happens is still unknownpic.twitter.com/2wimaQ23as
Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him
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12/n Statement 5 is again a fact. Reinfections happen, and the reference is a case study of one of these. How often this happens is still unknownpic.twitter.com/2wimaQ23as
13/n Statement 6+7 are broadly true, but pretty general stuff. We know that some combination of interventions can drive case numbers down and that the WHO supports this, it is the specific interventions and more importantly the long-term that are debated
14/n Thus far, there is not a single factual inaccuracy in the JSM, and even the debatable points are pretty on the mark (the debate is more about wording than anything else)
15/n Next, we have this sentence that is probably the most contentious one in the document The rest of the paragraph is obvious fact, but were lockdowns "essential"?pic.twitter.com/khOVGaKYa0
16/n This is the only place where I think you could realistically argue with the statements made in the JSM. The references support the point, but aren't perfect themselves (they are basically models that show some benefit to lockdowns)pic.twitter.com/UPheGFkMdZ
17/n We know that lockdowns reduce transmission of COVID-19, the question is whether the marginal benefit of various interventions is/was worth the cost in terms of economic/social harm
18/n I thoroughly respect the JSM authors, and I don't disagree, but I think whether the benefits outweighed the costs is perhaps more of a social decision than a scientific one
19/n Even if we could demonstrate that lockdowns saved millions of lives, there are some who would argue for political and other reasons that they were bad So I'm not entirely sure that saying these interventions were "essential" is strictly factual
20/n They may have been essential from the public health perspective, but ours is not the only perspective out there
The JSM states that lockdowns proved essential in 3 ways: * reduce mortality * prevent health care collapse * support endgame strategy (eradication) These all seem uncontroversial public health claims. Lockdowns may even help the economy, but the JSM doesn't pursue that point.
I think the word essential is arguable. Useful, necessary, beneficial, sure, but essential is more a matter of judgement than science imo
True. The (rhetorical) choice of wording was likely inspired by the relevance, and acceptance, in the public discourse of the notion of 'essential workers'.
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