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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 29 Dec 2020

      A lot of people have asked why the CDC estimates close to 100M total US COVID-19 infections (28%) by Dec 1, while http://covid19-projections.com  only estimates 58M (17%). I believe there are major flaws in the CDC estimates, which I will explain in this thread. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html …pic.twitter.com/fbDJ09kIM6

      18 replies 71 retweets 354 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 29 Dec 2020

      To begin, the http://covid19-projections.com  model is tuned on serology surveys, while the CDC model is not. While CDC estimates 7x more COVID-19 infections than reported, http://covid19-projections.com  estimates this ratio to currently be ~3x, down from 10x in April and 4x in the summer.pic.twitter.com/GuDBQfZqbN

      3 replies 3 retweets 51 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 29 Dec 2020

      Using the CDC claim that "1 in 7 total infections were reported", this would imply that 70% of North & South Dakota were infected, which doesn't pass a common sense test. While a 7x multiplier is believable in the spring, the paper still claims this is the case in September.pic.twitter.com/cgyAeVTLCg

      8 replies 2 retweets 61 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 29 Dec 2020

      The main issue with the CDC paper results lies with their estimate of non-hospitalized infections. Let's take a look. They claim that 26-40% of non-hospitalized, symptomatic individuals sought care/testing. And out of those individuals, only 43-58% completed a COVID test.pic.twitter.com/c1Bz8lp1an

      1 reply 0 retweets 28 likes
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    5. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 29 Dec 2020

      First of all, the 26-40% of individuals that seek care is based off of a third-party data source called COVID Near You. It is entirely self-reported, and over the past 3 weeks, only 402 people reported COVID-19 symptoms. In that time span, there were 4M cases. So coverage=0.01%.pic.twitter.com/Hd5ymu2HJH

      3 replies 2 retweets 45 likes
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      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Dec 2020
      Replying to @youyanggu

      Are you serious? The CDC isn't collecting this data themselves after nearly a year of the pandemic 👀👀👀👀

      5:35 PM - 29 Dec 2020
      • 2 Retweets
      • 9 Likes
      • Dr. Marie-Claude Couture Mark Kate Vrijmoet Lori to the Stars Bird Profile Robb Stankey Chris Godby Kevin Wilson Brian J. Gadd
      1 reply 2 retweets 9 likes
        1. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 29 Dec 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          🤷

          0 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
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