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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Dec 2020

      Health Nerd Retweeted Mikko Heikkilä  😊

      A few people have asked me to do this, and I always like to be consistent The Great Barrington Declaration is unscientific nonsense. What about the John Snow Memorandum (JSM) Some peer-review on twitter 1/nhttps://twitter.com/1st_sealord/status/1343901657856430089 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Mikko Heikkilä  😊 @1st_sealord
      Replying to @GidMK
      Mr Meyerowitz-Katz, you seem to do a lot of peer reviewing of Covid-related research papers and frequently picking on the Great Barrington declaration. Would you consider reviewing also the Jon Snow equivalent with the same critical eye?
      7 replies 84 retweets 250 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Dec 2020

      2/n The JSM is here, please do have a look and read if you are interested: https://www.johnsnowmemo.com/  Full disclosure: I agree with the sentiment, but I rarely sign petitions and did not do so with the JSM

      1 reply 5 retweets 25 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Dec 2020

      3/n The JSM is basically a call to action to implement public health responses to COVID-19, particularly in Europe and the US The specific examples cited are places with very good controlpic.twitter.com/tatu0ARdmu

      1 reply 3 retweets 26 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Dec 2020

      4/n ...except for Japan! JSM was published in October - it appears that their strategy has since become less effective

      2 replies 0 retweets 27 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Dec 2020

      5/n So, the science The first paragraph here is just boring facts as they were on the 12/10/2020pic.twitter.com/Ue1PQ07h8o

      1 reply 0 retweets 20 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Dec 2020

      6/n The next paragraph has these statements: 1 - COVID-19 is infectious+novel 2 - COVID-19 IFR>flu IFR 3 - some people have long-term symptoms 4 - unclear how long immunity lasts 5 - reinfections happen 6 - we can reduce transmission 7 - the WHO wants to reduce transmissionpic.twitter.com/YTOx7HxfB1

      1 reply 1 retweet 23 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Dec 2020

      7/n Statement 1 is referenced to this July paper, which supports the assertion that COVID-19 is infectious, spreads through contact, and is novelpic.twitter.com/69JvkuTyEl

      1 reply 0 retweets 17 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Dec 2020

      8/n Statement 2 is linked to this paper, and is demonstrable fact. I myself have also replicated this finding in our COVID-19 IFR by age paper https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10654-020-00698-1 …pic.twitter.com/EyKP4CH92V

      2:44 PM - 29 Dec 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 18 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Dec 2020

          9/n Statement 3 is, as phrased, true but potentially arguable. There are clearly some people who experience long-lasting symptoms after COVID-19. We do not yet know how many. The reference does support thispic.twitter.com/Nbh2kRbUjW

          2 replies 0 retweets 16 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Dec 2020

          10/n So we know that some people experience long-term symptoms after COVID-19. It is almost certain that COVID-19 in many cases causes these symptoms. But it is arguable in the sense that the causal attribution has not been 100% demonstrated

          2 replies 0 retweets 22 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Dec 2020

          11/n Statement 4 is a clear and obvious fact. We do not know how long immunity to COVID-19 will last after infection. It may be a forever, but based on other coronaviruses it is likely to be <5 years The reference again supports thispic.twitter.com/k224XAPzix

          1 reply 3 retweets 23 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Dec 2020

          12/n Statement 5 is again a fact. Reinfections happen, and the reference is a case study of one of these. How often this happens is still unknownpic.twitter.com/2wimaQ23as

          1 reply 0 retweets 16 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Dec 2020

          13/n Statement 6+7 are broadly true, but pretty general stuff. We know that some combination of interventions can drive case numbers down and that the WHO supports this, it is the specific interventions and more importantly the long-term that are debated

          1 reply 0 retweets 14 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Dec 2020

          14/n Thus far, there is not a single factual inaccuracy in the JSM, and even the debatable points are pretty on the mark (the debate is more about wording than anything else)

          1 reply 1 retweet 27 likes
          Show this thread
        8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Dec 2020

          15/n Next, we have this sentence that is probably the most contentious one in the document The rest of the paragraph is obvious fact, but were lockdowns "essential"?pic.twitter.com/khOVGaKYa0

          1 reply 0 retweets 17 likes
          Show this thread
        9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Dec 2020

          16/n This is the only place where I think you could realistically argue with the statements made in the JSM. The references support the point, but aren't perfect themselves (they are basically models that show some benefit to lockdowns)pic.twitter.com/UPheGFkMdZ

          1 reply 0 retweets 18 likes
          Show this thread
        10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Dec 2020

          17/n We know that lockdowns reduce transmission of COVID-19, the question is whether the marginal benefit of various interventions is/was worth the cost in terms of economic/social harm

          2 replies 1 retweet 28 likes
          Show this thread
        11. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Dec 2020

          18/n I thoroughly respect the JSM authors, and I don't disagree, but I think whether the benefits outweighed the costs is perhaps more of a social decision than a scientific one

          1 reply 1 retweet 34 likes
          Show this thread
        12. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Dec 2020

          19/n Even if we could demonstrate that lockdowns saved millions of lives, there are some who would argue for political and other reasons that they were bad So I'm not entirely sure that saying these interventions were "essential" is strictly factual

          1 reply 1 retweet 21 likes
          Show this thread
        13. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Dec 2020

          20/n They may have been essential from the public health perspective, but ours is not the only perspective out there

          2 replies 0 retweets 22 likes
          Show this thread
        14. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Dec 2020

          21/n Moving on, we have these statements about herd immunity. This is not referenced, but is decidedly true as I myself have written https://gidmk.medium.com/the-facts-about-herd-immunity-and-covid-19-3230616b70a3 … https://gidmk.medium.com/herd-immunity-for-covid-19-is-still-a-terrible-idea-a7ce15354c43 …pic.twitter.com/JuhDErGFfv

          1 reply 0 retweets 20 likes
          Show this thread
        15. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Dec 2020

          22/n Moving on, we have similar arguments to those I made in the above blogs, but more succinct, along with a few restatements of the above already referenced points (i.e. LongCOVID)pic.twitter.com/7hmBdLMf8D

          1 reply 0 retweets 16 likes
          Show this thread
        16. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Dec 2020

          23/n We also have this statement. It is not referenced, but is very easily documented in every serology study on COVID-19. Have a look at the references for our IFR by age paper if you're interestedpic.twitter.com/VunzBprLPI

          1 reply 0 retweets 16 likes
          Show this thread
        17. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Dec 2020

          24/n Lastly, we have the call to action, citing Vietnam, Japan, and NZ as examples of what to do to AVOID lockdown in the future Yes, you read that rightpic.twitter.com/Wjnu90ZPa4

          2 replies 1 retweet 22 likes
          Show this thread
        18. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Dec 2020

          25/n Indeed, the JSM authors argue specifically that lockdowns may have been justifiable in the face of a massive, out-of-control epidemic, but that (in Oct) the best way forward was decisive action to prevent another lockdownpic.twitter.com/EjM3q3Bt2v

          1 reply 1 retweet 25 likes
          Show this thread
        19. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Dec 2020

          26/n So, we're at the end. There are no factual inaccuracies per se in the JSM that I could find, and the references all support the statements

          1 reply 1 retweet 19 likes
          Show this thread
        20. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Dec 2020

          27/n There are definitely two statements that are arguable, although I personally think that they are reasonable to say. Realistically, the difference between "essential" and "useful/necessary" is more semantic than scientific

          1 reply 1 retweet 21 likes
          Show this thread
        21. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Dec 2020

          28/n I would say that the JSM is basically a scientific document with a call to action in it In contrast, as I've explained before, the GBD is simply an unscientific piece of political propaganda

          2 replies 10 retweets 73 likes
          Show this thread
        22. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Dec 2020

          29/n Comparing the two is an interesting exercise, because even at face value they are amazingly different. GBD does not cite any evidence, and the only specific statement it makes about science (re: herd immunity) is wrong

          1 reply 4 retweets 65 likes
          Show this thread
        23. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Dec 2020

          30/n In contrast, JSM is filled with factual, scientific statements that are referenced so you can check for yourself

          6 replies 1 retweet 59 likes
          Show this thread
        24. End of conversation

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