I think that this article by @PeteJamison looks at professor John Ioannidis and his statements during the pandemic, but leaves a few of them out
So I thought I'd just tweet out some things said in papers that prof Ioannidis has written this year 1/nhttps://twitter.com/hswapnil/status/1339308701048594434 …
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2/n Note: these are all from published or preprinted research, and I'm directly screenshotting so you can read the words for yourself
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3/n Back in May, from the original preprint of the IFR paper https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v1.full.pdf … "the worldwide IFR of COVID-19...may be in the same ballpark as...influenza (0.1%, 0.2% in a bad year)" This was a mistake (the IFR of flu is not 0.1-0.2%)pic.twitter.com/sAtTTdCr4J
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Replying to @GidMK
1/2 While I also haven't seen a plausible source for that 0.1-0.2 % influenza-IFR, why do you think these estimates are off, as he is talking about a bad influenza? Speaking of Germany, the last bad influenza-season caused 25k excess deaths. Applying the IFR-estimate ...
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Replying to @science63424214 @GidMK
2/2 ... to that number would result in 12.5-25 million infected (15-30 % of population). Doesn't sound too off to me!
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Replying to @science63424214 @GidMK
It’s off by a lot, because we don’t calculate the IFR of the flu. For the flu we use the Case Fatality Rate (CFR), and it’s based on a combo of modeling (ppl who seek care for flu-like illness) and positive flu tests. Doesn’t include asymptomatic cases, which are 50-75% for flu.
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Replying to @DarwinFinch4 @GidMK
Stating we don't calculate it - which is true - is no valid argument for the # being off! As I have shown for GER in 2017/18 above, the # may very well be in that ballpark for a bad (!) flu! That's of course no evidence, but simply stating the number is wrong isn't either!
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Replying to @science63424214 @DarwinFinch4
The only time we have calculated the IFR for influenza was in the 2009 pandemic flu, for which the IFR was ~0.0001-0.001%. More broadly, the CDC gives the symptomatic/treated CFR of seasonal flu as ~0.1%, with asymptomatic/mild cases being ~30-50% therefore an IFR of ~0.05%
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People commonly reference the CDC's modelled estimate of ~0.1% flu CFR as the IFR, which is why this point is incorrect (this is what the author was doing)
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Replying to @GidMK @DarwinFinch4
I never argued that comparing the Covid-IFR to those 0.1 % was correct, as the IFR of seas. influenza is unknown! My point was, that the IFR of a severe seasonal influenza COULD very well be in that ballpark. No evidence, nth you should mention in a paper, just the possibility!
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