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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Dec 2020

      Health Nerd Retweeted Swapnil Hiremath

      I think that this article by @PeteJamison looks at professor John Ioannidis and his statements during the pandemic, but leaves a few of them out So I thought I'd just tweet out some things said in papers that prof Ioannidis has written this year 1/nhttps://twitter.com/hswapnil/status/1339308701048594434 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Swapnil Hiremath @hswapnil
      'He had appeared at least 18 times on major cable news networks, repeatedly questioning the severity of the pandemic." https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2020/12/16/john-ioannidis-coronavirus-lockdowns-fox-news/ … h/t @boback for this write-up on the supposedly silenced Stanford scientist
      3 replies 39 retweets 94 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Dec 2020

      2/n Note: these are all from published or preprinted research, and I'm directly screenshotting so you can read the words for yourself

      1 reply 1 retweet 13 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Dec 2020

      3/n Back in May, from the original preprint of the IFR paper https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v1.full.pdf … "the worldwide IFR of COVID-19...may be in the same ballpark as...influenza (0.1%, 0.2% in a bad year)" This was a mistake (the IFR of flu is not 0.1-0.2%)pic.twitter.com/sAtTTdCr4J

      4 replies 3 retweets 26 likes
      Show this thread
    4. scienceteacher‏ @science63424214 27 Dec 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      1/2 While I also haven't seen a plausible source for that 0.1-0.2 % influenza-IFR, why do you think these estimates are off, as he is talking about a bad influenza? Speaking of Germany, the last bad influenza-season caused 25k excess deaths. Applying the IFR-estimate ...

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. scienceteacher‏ @science63424214 27 Dec 2020
      Replying to @science63424214 @GidMK

      2/2 ... to that number would result in 12.5-25 million infected (15-30 % of population). Doesn't sound too off to me!

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Darwin Finch‏ @DarwinFinch4 28 Dec 2020
      Replying to @science63424214 @GidMK

      It’s off by a lot, because we don’t calculate the IFR of the flu. For the flu we use the Case Fatality Rate (CFR), and it’s based on a combo of modeling (ppl who seek care for flu-like illness) and positive flu tests. Doesn’t include asymptomatic cases, which are 50-75% for flu.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    7. scienceteacher‏ @science63424214 29 Dec 2020
      Replying to @DarwinFinch4 @GidMK

      Stating we don't calculate it - which is true - is no valid argument for the # being off! As I have shown for GER in 2017/18 above, the # may very well be in that ballpark for a bad (!) flu! That's of course no evidence, but simply stating the number is wrong isn't either!

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Dec 2020
      Replying to @science63424214 @DarwinFinch4

      The only time we have calculated the IFR for influenza was in the 2009 pandemic flu, for which the IFR was ~0.0001-0.001%. More broadly, the CDC gives the symptomatic/treated CFR of seasonal flu as ~0.1%, with asymptomatic/mild cases being ~30-50% therefore an IFR of ~0.05%

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Dec 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @science63424214 @DarwinFinch4

      People commonly reference the CDC's modelled estimate of ~0.1% flu CFR as the IFR, which is why this point is incorrect (this is what the author was doing)

      2:01 PM - 29 Dec 2020
      • 1 Like
      • Darwin Finch
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. scienceteacher‏ @science63424214 29 Dec 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @DarwinFinch4

          I never argued that comparing the Covid-IFR to those 0.1 % was correct, as the IFR of seas. influenza is unknown! My point was, that the IFR of a severe seasonal influenza COULD very well be in that ballpark. No evidence, nth you should mention in a paper, just the possibility!

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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