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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. John Rogers‏ @ronnytodgers 29 Dec 2020
      Replying to @Mand2101 @manda251 and

      John Rogers Retweeted Health Nerd

      If she were practicing diagnostic pathology during this pandemic you might have a point. Instead she has devoted herself to spreading misinformation. You should read this to see how insane her output has become.https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1317920314072866816?s=20 …

      John Rogers added,

      Health NerdVerified account @GidMK
      People have been asking me to debunk this thread "proving" that COVID-19 deaths are false positives by correlating things, but instead I thought I'd simply list a few things that are more well correlated than this https://twitter.com/ClareCraigPath/status/1317009608448290816 …
      Show this thread
      3 replies 1 retweet 6 likes
    2. Manda25‏ @Mand2101 29 Dec 2020
      Replying to @ronnytodgers @KatyMcconkey and

      It appears this person is also spending most of his time ( whilst living in Sydney) writing for The Guardian and The Observer. Is he still a practising epidemiologist?

      3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Dec 2020
      Replying to @Mand2101 @manda251 and

      Yes. I write a column about once every two months for the Guardian at the moment. Also, lol at "whilst in Sydney" what does that even mean?

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    4. Manda25‏ @Mand2101 29 Dec 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @ronnytodgers and

      My tweet was not a personal snipe at you. I was responding to a previous post which included a retweet of one of your posts. My point re your residence in Sydney, was to illustrate that Dr Claire Path is based in the UK, thus her views are more relevant to me personally.pic.twitter.com/HmbUNtU5NV

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Dec 2020
      Replying to @Mand2101 @manda251 and

      The ONS agrees with my views, as I cite in my blog on the matter. I was also born and raised in London if that makes a difference 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    6. Manda25‏ @Mand2101 29 Dec 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @ronnytodgers and

      I’m sure your views are just as valid as all practising medical professionals. As a non-medical person, I’m out of my depth with regards to epidemiology & virology. But I have the ability to analyse ONS stats & other data, which is how I form some of my own independent views.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Dec 2020
      Replying to @Mand2101 @manda251 and

      Well, the ONS states that the false positive rate of COVID-19 PCR tests in England is at most 0.08%, and likely quite a bit lower. This is a mathematical fact, despite the myths spread by people who do not like mathspic.twitter.com/sriozqTPuw

      2 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Dec 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @manda251 and

      Very simply - if you do 210,000 tests, and 160 of them come back +ve (the July numbers from the ONS), then AT MOST the false +ve rate is 160/210,000 = 1 per 1,250 tests. But since it's extremely unlikely that ALL of those tests were false +ves, the rate is probably lower

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Dec 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @manda251 and

      In NSW, Australia, we recently ran 236,201 COVID-19 PCR tests during an outbreak and found 96 +ves. With 1 confirmed false +ve (we retest most positives), we can say that the false positive rate is at most 0.04% but is probably 0.0004% or lower (1 per 250,000 tests)pic.twitter.com/52OojXH9IW

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Dec 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @manda251 and

      Some people like to say that as prevalence in the community increases, so too does the false positive rate, which is not entirely untrue - most false positives in PCR are due to cross-contamination and this becomes more common as case numbers rise...

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Dec 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @manda251 and

      ...but the obvious fact here is that this REQUIRES CASE NUMBERS TO RISE. So yes, in a massive epidemic where labs are overwhelmed you may see a lower specificity, but as the % positive rises specificity matters less and less

      1:49 PM - 29 Dec 2020
      • 1 Like
      • John Rogers
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Dec 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @manda251 and

          Looking at the UK's % positive, which is ~8% right now, even if the false positive rate had increased by 10x since the ONS did their survey in July, it would not make even a tiny dent on the true case numberspic.twitter.com/t8ECdWgXPK

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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