Skip to content
By using Twitter’s services you agree to our Cookies Use. We and our partners operate globally and use cookies, including for analytics, personalisation, and ads.
  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • About

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

Tweets

Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

Tweets

  • © 2021 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Dec 2020

      Health Nerd Retweeted Dr. Eli David

      Fascinating. The paper itself merely compares three different models of the reproductive number of COVID-19 in different places. For lockdowns: Model 1 = big benefit Model 2 = small benefit Model 3 = mixed benefithttps://twitter.com/DrEliDavid/status/1343359007004774400 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Dr. Eli DavidVerified account @DrEliDavid
      New paper by Ioannidis et al analyzes the effectiveness of lockdowns in14 Europeans countries and concludes: "𝗟𝗼𝗰𝗸𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻 𝗵𝗮𝗱 𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘁𝗹𝗲 𝗼𝗿 𝗻𝗼 𝗯𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗳𝗶𝘁" Another nail in the coffin of lockdowns... https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.22.20160341v3 … pic.twitter.com/hJ6JrmxJfG
      5 replies 14 retweets 47 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Dec 2020

      Model 1 was published to great acclaim in a paper in Nature https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2405-7 … The crux of this new preprint appears to basically be saying that this previous publication was pretty shit

      1 reply 1 retweet 13 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Dec 2020

      And look, it's hard to disagree that a lot of COVID-19 models are terrible What's weird is how denialists are seizing on this paper as evidence that lockdowns didn't work

      3 replies 3 retweets 17 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Dec 2020

      Some quotes from the paper: "We do not claim that lockdown measures definitely had no impact" "our results should not be interpreted...that NPIs are totally ineffective" "substantial uncertainty may remain despite the best efforts of the modelers"pic.twitter.com/R58jUkoboj

      1 reply 1 retweet 16 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Dec 2020

      Oddly enough, I'm not sure the conclusion in the abstract actually agrees with the lengthy conclusions of the paper itself, which is a bit confusingpic.twitter.com/pecNTDbiuF

      1 reply 0 retweets 12 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Dec 2020

      If nothing else, the paper demonstrates that lockdowns reduce R(t) by a reasonable amount, even if that is from 0.9 to 0.6, and this could reduce the overall death count in a pandemic wave by many thousands

      1 reply 4 retweets 27 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Dec 2020

      Although worth noting that I've been saying this for months, from mine and other data I suspect that the actual implementation of restrictions at the start of the pandemic had less of an impact than the caution around the disease itselfpic.twitter.com/A6iGatlC4w

      1 reply 0 retweets 22 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Dec 2020

      Anyway, it's absurd cherry-picking to say that "lockdowns had little or no benefit" from this paper, what it appears to show is that models used to determine the benefits of lockdown are pretty crap

      3:16 PM - 28 Dec 2020
      • 7 Retweets
      • 74 Likes
      • ailment73 Alexander Hope J. Dang and Blast! Gordon:Covid grapher, data hunter-gatherer Covid19SupportGrpSA shriyuta/ശ്രീയുത Jordan Hughes Liam
      9 replies 7 retweets 74 likes
        1. Dr Gill Armstrong MCIAT ARB  ❤️ 🏙 📈‏ @arch_lintel 28 Dec 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Oh my...compared to Melbourne’s lockdown, the lockdown lites in Europe were never going to be effective. They seem to me to be lockdown in name only

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
          Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
          Undo
        1. New conversation
        2.  🦷 🦷 𝘔𝘢𝘵𝘵 𝘏𝘰𝘱𝘤𝘳𝘢𝘧𝘵  🦷 🦷‏ @Matt_Hopcraft 28 Dec 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Would be interesting to throw the Victorian lockdown into the mix and see how that comes out.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Dec 2020
          Replying to @Matt_Hopcraft

          Yep! Would also be interesting to see this applied to number of cases/deaths rather than just R(t)

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. Ono no Komachi‏ @OnoNoKomachi1 28 Dec 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          The same could be said of models used to predict how many people have or will die of lockdowns. It's Sturgeon's Law - 90 % of everything is crap.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
          Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
          Undo
        1. New conversation
        2. Martin Menzies‏ @menzies_charles 28 Dec 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          I'm just a lay guy who reads a lot and interprets it himself. Hard lockdowns work, NZ, Thailand, laos Vietnam, Taiwan. Wishy washy lockdowns with fixed end dates open up too fast to keep the economy active are doomed before they start.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3.  🌱 Jens-Petter Salvesen  🌍‏ @jpsalvesen 28 Dec 2020
          Replying to @menzies_charles @GidMK

          Taiwan never locked down, though. They achieved what they achieved through preparation, early action, contact tracing, face masks, testing, travel quarantine, isolation of cases etc.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Paul Cresham‏ @pcresh 28 Dec 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Nice to hear someone who knows what they’re doing saying the same as I’ve been thinking. It’s hard to say without sounding like a denier or like keeping people apart won’t stop spread. It’s more about what actually keeps people apart enough. Thank you.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
          Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
          Undo
        1. Sharon Moon‏ @SharonLeeMoon 28 Dec 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Models ARE pretty crap and what a lock down accomplishes depends . . GRRRRRR. Isn't this an example of confirmation bias or something like that? Self-interest bias is unconscious.pic.twitter.com/ewRJgHabY1

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
          Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
          Undo
        1. Federico Andres Lois‏ @federicolois 29 Dec 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Lockdowns and risk aversion will mute a wave, models saying otherwise are very suspect. How much weight to assign to lockdown and how much to risk aversion is the crux of the issue IMHO. Nobody is looking in how restricting healthy makes the end result worse though, which is sad.

          0 replies 1 retweet 0 likes
          Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
          Undo
        1. Mikko Heikkilä  😊‏ @1st_sealord 29 Dec 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Mr Meyerowitz-Katz, you seem to do a lot of peer reviewing of Covid-related research papers and frequently picking on the Great Barrington declaration. Would you consider reviewing also the Jon Snow equivalent with the same critical eye?

          0 replies 2 retweets 4 likes
          Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
          Undo

      Loading seems to be taking a while.

      Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

        Promoted Tweet

        false

        • © 2021 Twitter
        • About
        • Help Center
        • Terms
        • Privacy policy
        • Cookies
        • Ads info