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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 26 Dec 2020

    A thought: could the skewed death rate of the 1918 influenza pandemic with a higher toll in the young be in part due to survivorship bias in the elderly of that time, given that far fewer people made it past 50?

    5:24 PM - 26 Dec 2020
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    30 replies 9 retweets 154 likes
      1. Techpriest‏ @techpriest 26 Dec 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        Other theories currently abound for thathttps://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2020/04/25/a-peculiarity-of-spanish-flu-may-shed-light-on-covid-19 …

        0 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
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      1. أخصائى تفعيص‏ @pedspharm 26 Dec 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        Seems like "too large" a skew, I mean given that in the current one only a very small percentage of the young develops severe disease, and one wouldn't expect those to be "highly notcieable" as seems from this epidemic account

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      2. Kent Hendricks‏ @kenthendricks 26 Dec 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        The connection is the 1891 pandemic. See, for example, this an a handful of other similar studies:https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0069586 …

        1 reply 1 retweet 8 likes
      3. Kent Hendricks‏ @kenthendricks 26 Dec 2020
        Replying to @kenthendricks @GidMK

        This too:https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/187/12/2503/5091398 …

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation
      1. Balgor‏ @Balgor11 26 Dec 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        Definitely if you made it into your 60s back then you were Superman.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Future Elizabeth‏ @future_fangirl 26 Dec 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        The war may have played a role, young healthy soldiers crowded together in very unsanitary conditions. But if I remember correctly 2009 H1N1 was fairly harsh on the young? It would be interesting to see if young women were at as much risk considering they weren’t fighting.

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      1. Gregory Travis‏ @greg_travis 26 Dec 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        Average life expectancy at age 20 in 1920 was 48 additional years (i.e. survive to 68 if you made it to 20). Now life expectancy at 20 is about 55 additional years (i.e. survive to 75 if you make it to 20) I don't know if that's significant enough to account for any difference

        0 replies 0 retweets 12 likes
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      2. Farid Matuk‏ @matuk 26 Dec 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        Talking about skewed death rates, working with excess mortality Peru has a higher proportion of maleness than Mexico. My conjecture is due to a more patriarchal society in Peru than Mexico.pic.twitter.com/C9hKdQqM4j

        0 replies 1 retweet 1 like
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      1. Eric O'Grey‏ @Eric_OGrey 26 Dec 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        I just assumed that the older people weren’t going outside

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