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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 26 Dec 2020

    Health Nerd Retweeted Matthew Fox

    People are collectively terrible at risk, but I think a useful way to think about it is to consider that the death rate from skydiving is ~1 in 100,000 skydives and use that as context So 1 in 1,000 risk of death is like skydiving every day for 4.5 monthshttps://twitter.com/ProfMattFox/status/1342855362362433541 …

    Health Nerd added,

    Matthew FoxVerified account @ProfMattFox
    As humans, we have a hard time judging risk, which is challenging in COVID times. Many of us hear risk of death is 1 in 1000 and assume we will be the 1 not the 999. Others hear 1 in 1000 and assume it’s no big deal. This makes it really hard for us to take collective action.
    2:08 PM - 26 Dec 2020
    • 46 Retweets
    • 168 Likes
    • Felicia Meyerowitz Richard Smith Per Olsson Gisleskog, PhD Ruairidh Milne aure Klemen Dovc ChristosArgyropoulos MD, PhD (Green Chili Check) Adam Donaldson Akh
    24 replies 46 retweets 168 likes
      1. Dr KayRay‏ @ktibus 26 Dec 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        It's very interesting. That got me thinking. Risk figures are probabilities, that generally include everyone. My next thought is then "How do I mitigate the risks?".

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      2. Mike H‏ @foobula_ 26 Dec 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        I started with a .99999 probability of survival and took it to the 100th power to get a .999 probability, so 100 days of skydiving? (disclaimer I'm not an epi)

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      3.  😷 Christopher Peters  💉‏ @statwonk 26 Dec 2020
        Replying to @foobula_ @foobula @GidMK

        It looks like sky diving tandem is closer to 5x safer. 😝pic.twitter.com/u8MD60y0MW

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. End of conversation
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      2.  🌱VAX, MASK, & PURIFY AIR‏ @ElaineVigneault 26 Dec 2020
        Replying to @cuppycup @GidMK @TriggerLoop

        I feel like that’s changed since 1994

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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      2. mamma #ProtectTheKids BildungAberSicher.ch‏ @Happy_live_safe 26 Dec 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        I have a child born with a condition that happens about 1/1000 - 1/500. Doesn't help a damn bit. It happens to you and you gotta live with it in real life Stats are only numbers. Protecy against corona. There is a chance or dying? Avoid the risk.

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      3.  🌱VAX, MASK, & PURIFY AIR‏ @ElaineVigneault 26 Dec 2020
        Replying to @Happy_live_safe @GidMK

        I have a zebra kid too. ❤️

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1.  🌱VAX, MASK, & PURIFY AIR‏ @ElaineVigneault 26 Dec 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        The risk-benefit shift too. Gotta admit I’ve had a few days of “this is futile, we’re all going to get infected, may as well have good times before I or loved one dies” especially since I have strong regrets of not visiting my dad more before he died.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Del Amia‏ @milladeema 26 Dec 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        Some even think that odds change. If you flip a coin it's 50% chance to get heads. If you flip heads 10 times on a row, it's still 50% chance, not something else.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. BZ‏ @Bozaster 26 Dec 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        I really prefer the way @d_spiegel framed it. Covid roughly doubles your death risk at all ages. So for 30yo it's something way below 1/1000 and for 65 yo it's a couple of % etc.

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