27/n Fact 27: Much of the economic and social disruption that people have experienced this year is due to THE PANDEMIC ITSELF and not necessarily government action
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28/n Fact 28: During lockdown, New Zealand's death excess deaths DROPPED. The NZ total excess deaths for the year are below usual, in contrast to other countries with large epidemicshttps://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32647-7/fulltext …
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29n Fact 29: The average life expectancy for an 80-year-old person alive today in the United Kingdom is 9.12 years. The average death rate from COVID-19 for this group is ~8.5% https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/bulletins/nationallifetablesunitedkingdom/2017to2019#national-life-tables-life-expectancy-in-the-uk-data …
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30/n Fact 30: The UK has had a very large increase in excess mortality this year, orders of magnitude higher than in an average bad influenza seasonpic.twitter.com/TsgrJhQmx6
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31/n Fact 31: COVID-19 reinfections occur. While we do not know the exact rate as of yet, and it may be very low, as time goes on the rate is likely to risehttps://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30764-7/fulltext …
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Replying to @GidMK
Thanks, this (pic.twitter.com/m5X20IfVza) is the first time I've heard the claim that COVID19 is as lethal for young people as is influenza! Do you think that comparison successfully adjusts for more testing for COVID than influenza? Also, I've heard that measuring IFR depends on
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Replying to @ceptional
It is extremely complex. Any comparison is somewhat apples to oranges, because influenza deaths are inferred from ICD codes of pneumonia, while COVID-19 deaths are counted due to testing. That being said, I think we have sufficient evidence to say that they are comparable <30yo
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Replying to @GidMK
By comparable, I'm thinking you really mean within a factor of 10? It's disappointing that that graph doesn't have some kind of indication of the apples-to-oranges part of the uncertainty. E.g., it claims COVID is 13.2 times (false precision) as lethal than flu, but as you say it
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Replying to @ceptional @GidMK
is ICD codes versus testing, right? So it could be off by a large factor?
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Replying to @ceptional @GidMK
13.2 times as lethal than flu for 80-year-olds, I meant to write, sorry.
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Oh absolutely. I suspect that COVID-19 is substantially more fatal than that graph would imply, but this would probably not change the figures by an order of magnitude. Maybe 15-16x as deadly, for example, if we were to model COVID-19 deaths similarly to influenza
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