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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Dec 2020

      27/n Fact 27: Much of the economic and social disruption that people have experienced this year is due to THE PANDEMIC ITSELF and not necessarily government action

      7 replies 28 retweets 200 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Dec 2020

      28/n Fact 28: During lockdown, New Zealand's death excess deaths DROPPED. The NZ total excess deaths for the year are below usual, in contrast to other countries with large epidemicshttps://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32647-7/fulltext …

      5 replies 46 retweets 224 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Dec 2020

      29n Fact 29: The average life expectancy for an 80-year-old person alive today in the United Kingdom is 9.12 years. The average death rate from COVID-19 for this group is ~8.5% https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/bulletins/nationallifetablesunitedkingdom/2017to2019#national-life-tables-life-expectancy-in-the-uk-data …

      4 replies 18 retweets 156 likes
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    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Dec 2020

      30/n Fact 30: The UK has had a very large increase in excess mortality this year, orders of magnitude higher than in an average bad influenza seasonpic.twitter.com/TsgrJhQmx6

      13 replies 26 retweets 137 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 22 Dec 2020

      31/n Fact 31: COVID-19 reinfections occur. While we do not know the exact rate as of yet, and it may be very low, as time goes on the rate is likely to risehttps://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30764-7/fulltext …

      5 replies 24 retweets 111 likes
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    6. Alex Holcombe‏ @ceptional 22 Dec 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      Thanks, this (pic.twitter.com/m5X20IfVza) is the first time I've heard the claim that COVID19 is as lethal for young people as is influenza! Do you think that comparison successfully adjusts for more testing for COVID than influenza? Also, I've heard that measuring IFR depends on

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 22 Dec 2020
      Replying to @ceptional

      It is extremely complex. Any comparison is somewhat apples to oranges, because influenza deaths are inferred from ICD codes of pneumonia, while COVID-19 deaths are counted due to testing. That being said, I think we have sufficient evidence to say that they are comparable <30yo

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Alex Holcombe‏ @ceptional 22 Dec 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      By comparable, I'm thinking you really mean within a factor of 10? It's disappointing that that graph doesn't have some kind of indication of the apples-to-oranges part of the uncertainty. E.g., it claims COVID is 13.2 times (false precision) as lethal than flu, but as you say it

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Alex Holcombe‏ @ceptional 22 Dec 2020
      Replying to @ceptional @GidMK

      is ICD codes versus testing, right? So it could be off by a large factor?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Alex Holcombe‏ @ceptional 22 Dec 2020
      Replying to @ceptional @GidMK

      13.2 times as lethal than flu for 80-year-olds, I meant to write, sorry.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 22 Dec 2020
      Replying to @ceptional

      Oh absolutely. I suspect that COVID-19 is substantially more fatal than that graph would imply, but this would probably not change the figures by an order of magnitude. Maybe 15-16x as deadly, for example, if we were to model COVID-19 deaths similarly to influenza

      1:49 PM - 22 Dec 2020
      0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

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