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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Dec 2020

      It's coming towards the end of the year, and there are still countless people minimizing the pandemic and spreading untruths So I thought I'd do a bit of a thread of FACTS about COVID-19 1/n

      56 replies 1,193 retweets 2,444 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Dec 2020

      2/n Fact 1: the death rate of COVID-19 varies substantially by age, but is high even for relatively young people For example, a 1 in 2,700 risk of death from COVID-19 for a 35 year old, based on our comprehensive paper on the topic https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10654-020-00698-1 …pic.twitter.com/lpN4W6CyKJ

      18 replies 89 retweets 358 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Dec 2020

      3/n Fact 2: COVID-19 is MUCH more dangerous than influenza For younger age groups, COVID-19 may be similarly lethal. For anyone over 30, it is much worse. @zorinaq has a nice graphic on thispic.twitter.com/e1DUdK1zcd

      12 replies 128 retweets 430 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Dec 2020

      4/n Fact 3: RT-PCR testing for COVID-19 has a very low rate of false positives. This is both conceptually demonstrable https://virologydownunder.com/the-false-positive-pcr-problem-is-not-a-problem/ … And mathematical facthttps://gidmk.medium.com/most-positive-coronavirus-tests-are-true-positives-60c95fe54fec …

      4:16 PM - 21 Dec 2020
      • 78 Retweets
      • 357 Likes
      • JP Yakobius McCaff Graham Lenton 💙 why Toni Widmo 🏳️‍⚧️ 🧡 Cam the Cat Carl elsby Dillon Stent
      19 replies 78 retweets 357 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Dec 2020

          5/n Fact 4: most deaths that are counted as COVID-19 (at least in the US and other developed nations) have COVID-19 as the "underlying" or main cause https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771761 …https://gidmk.medium.com/covid-19-deaths-are-mostly-caused-by-coronavirus-2a6d2d43bd09 …

          11 replies 47 retweets 307 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Dec 2020

          6/n Fact 5: herd immunity through natural infection is not a way out of the pandemic. It will not bring us "back to normal", and certainly not within the timeframes proposedhttps://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-25862/v1 …

          9 replies 58 retweets 334 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Dec 2020

          7/n Fact 6: COVID-19 is a real disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus. Somehow people are still questioning this (yes, really) @MackayIM has a great piece herehttps://virologydownunder.com/sigh-yes-the-covid-virus-is-real/ …

          3 replies 49 retweets 324 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Dec 2020

          8/n Fact 7: In the published data thus far, there is no large increase in suicide rates associated with lockdowns, although there are increases related to the pandemic itselfhttps://gidmk.medium.com/have-lockdowns-caused-suicides-during-covid-19-dd6b7a741f39 …

          11 replies 61 retweets 349 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Dec 2020

          9/n Fact 8: The cost-benefit of government action against COVID-19 is COMPLEX In some situations, it may be harmful. In others, beneficialhttps://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/09/30/world-economic-outlook-october-2020 …

          6 replies 32 retweets 216 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Dec 2020

          10/n Fact 9: about 20% of people who catch COVID-19 are fully asymptomatic (i.e. they never experience symptoms at all) https://jammi.utpjournals.press/doi/abs/10.3138/jammi-2020-0030 …

          9 replies 47 retweets 288 likes
          Show this thread
        8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Dec 2020

          11/n Fact 10: there is quite a lot of evidence demonstrating that people can spread COVID-19 before becoming symptomatic, with some indication that the most infectious period is right around the onset of symptomshttps://theconversation.com/covid-19-when-are-you-most-infectious-150760 …

          3 replies 59 retweets 285 likes
          Show this thread
        9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Dec 2020

          Health Nerd Retweeted Prof. Shane Crotty

          12/n Fact 11: there is some t-cell cross reactivity for SARS-CoV-2 Fact 12: this DOES NOT MEAN that we have "pre-existing immunity". From the expert:https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1293344524731691008?s=20 …

          Health Nerd added,

          Prof. Shane Crotty @profshanecrotty
          1/ There are various tweets misinterpreting COVID-19 “pre-existing immunity” and making dangerous claims about herd immunity. Since many of those claims refer to our scientific papers, we will reiterate the facts. @SetteLab @ljiresearch @ScienceMagazine @CellCellPress pic.twitter.com/gCZwFMW1iU
          Show this thread
          1 reply 34 retweets 239 likes
          Show this thread
        10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Dec 2020

          13/n Fact 13: most places in the world are far below "herd immunity" numbers We need a vaccine for community immunity!

          4 replies 30 retweets 272 likes
          Show this thread
        11. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Dec 2020

          14/n Fact 14: COVID-19 has been associated with large increases in excess mortality in many countries, including the US and much of Europe https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps pic.twitter.com/M3FAdMrB00

          3 replies 46 retweets 253 likes
          Show this thread
        12. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Dec 2020

          15/n Fact 15: COVID-19 is probably less deadly now than it was at the start of 2020 Fact 16: It is INCREDIBLY HARD to put a number on this differencehttps://gidmk.medium.com/is-covid-19-getting-less-lethal-f2907e06a0d …

          6 replies 20 retweets 238 likes
          Show this thread
        13. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Dec 2020

          16/n Fact 17: The cycle threshold (Ct) of PCR testing is not some magic silver bullet against a growing epidemic. @MackayIM again has an excellent read on this herehttps://virologydownunder.com/the-false-positive-pcr-problem-is-not-a-problem/ …

          3 replies 29 retweets 233 likes
          Show this thread
        14. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Dec 2020

          17/n Fact 18: The comparator to government action for COVID-19 is not "business as usual", it's "widespread epidemic", and anyone who pretends otherwise is being very sillypic.twitter.com/YwGcwqWFP3

          3 replies 56 retweets 320 likes
          Show this thread
        15. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Dec 2020

          18/n Fact 19: the corollary to Fact 18 is that a lot of the impact of lockdowns is UNCERTAIN

          2 replies 17 retweets 178 likes
          Show this thread
        16. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Dec 2020

          19/n Fact 20: Lockdowns clearly reduce COVID-19 case numbers in the short term. Other government actions can clearly limit case numbers in the long term. There are now numerous exampleshttps://www.devex.com/news/behind-vietnam-s-covid-19-success-story-98257 …

          3 replies 54 retweets 257 likes
          Show this thread
        17. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Dec 2020

          20/n (Whether this means that lockdowns "work" depends on your definition of "work" and "lockdowns", but in general it seems fair to say that COVID-19 can clearly be controlled through coordinated government responses)

          3 replies 34 retweets 234 likes
          Show this thread
        18. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Dec 2020

          21/n Fact 21: COVID-19 is the third leading cause of death for 2020 in the United States In the last few months of the year, it may have overtaken other causes of death to become THE LEADING CAUSE OF DEATH FOR >30 year oldshttps://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2774465 …

          5 replies 55 retweets 236 likes
          Show this thread
        19. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Dec 2020

          22/n Fact 22: We still do not fully know the long-term chronic impacts of COVID-19, but they are likely to impact a non-trivial portion of the people who get the diseasehttps://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02598-6 …

          4 replies 62 retweets 269 likes
          Show this thread
        20. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Dec 2020

          Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd

          23/n Fact 23: This is something of a repetition of Fact 4, but just to clarify that the evidence is clear that most people who are classified as having died of COVID-19 did indeed die of the diseasehttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1341175635700457472?s=20 …

          Health Nerd added,

          Health NerdVerified account @GidMK
          5/n Fact 4: most deaths that are counted as COVID-19 (at least in the US and other developed nations) have COVID-19 as the "underlying" or main cause https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771761 … https://gidmk.medium.com/covid-19-deaths-are-mostly-caused-by-coronavirus-2a6d2d43bd09 …
          Show this thread
          3 replies 27 retweets 198 likes
          Show this thread
        21. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Dec 2020

          24/n Fact 24: Another corollary, this time to Facts 9 and 10 - since many people are asymptomatic when testing positive (even though the majority will go on to develop symptoms) isolating PCR+ cases is simply good public health policy

          3 replies 19 retweets 172 likes
          Show this thread
        22. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Dec 2020

          25/n Fact 25: opioid-related mortality has been rising in the US for some time, and while it may have been exacerbated due to the pandemic it is inaccurate to ascribe all overdoses to lockdowns/COVID-19https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/p1218-overdose-deaths-covid-19.html …

          6 replies 12 retweets 160 likes
          Show this thread
        23. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Dec 2020

          26/n Fact 26: While COVID-19 deaths only made up 40% of all excess deaths in young people in the U.S., it is likely that this is due to undercapture of the COVID-19 burden in this population (i.e. much of the remaining 60% is COVID-19 related as well) https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2774445 …pic.twitter.com/2qS98xCpOM

          6 replies 20 retweets 153 likes
          Show this thread
        24. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Dec 2020

          27/n Fact 27: Much of the economic and social disruption that people have experienced this year is due to THE PANDEMIC ITSELF and not necessarily government action

          7 replies 28 retweets 200 likes
          Show this thread
        25. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Dec 2020

          28/n Fact 28: During lockdown, New Zealand's death excess deaths DROPPED. The NZ total excess deaths for the year are below usual, in contrast to other countries with large epidemicshttps://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32647-7/fulltext …

          5 replies 46 retweets 224 likes
          Show this thread
        26. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Dec 2020

          29n Fact 29: The average life expectancy for an 80-year-old person alive today in the United Kingdom is 9.12 years. The average death rate from COVID-19 for this group is ~8.5% https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/bulletins/nationallifetablesunitedkingdom/2017to2019#national-life-tables-life-expectancy-in-the-uk-data …

          4 replies 18 retweets 156 likes
          Show this thread
        27. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Dec 2020

          30/n Fact 30: The UK has had a very large increase in excess mortality this year, orders of magnitude higher than in an average bad influenza seasonpic.twitter.com/TsgrJhQmx6

          13 replies 26 retweets 137 likes
          Show this thread
        28. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 22 Dec 2020

          31/n Fact 31: COVID-19 reinfections occur. While we do not know the exact rate as of yet, and it may be very low, as time goes on the rate is likely to risehttps://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30764-7/fulltext …

          5 replies 24 retweets 111 likes
          Show this thread
        29. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 22 Dec 2020

          Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd

          32/n Fact 32: The WHO estimated that LESS THAN 10% of the world was infected in October, contrary to common mythshttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1315447821814775808?s=19 …

          Health Nerd added,

          Health NerdVerified account @GidMK
          23/n However, as @zorinaq has pointed out, this is simply bad reporting, with the WHO arguing that LESS THAN 10% of the world is likely infected This is, perhaps, an issue with relying on headlines in a scientific paper https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1314160523613593600?s=20 …
          Show this thread
          5 replies 10 retweets 71 likes
          Show this thread
        30. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 22 Dec 2020

          33/n Fact 33: Many of these facts are about NUANCE and UNCERTAINTY. Often what we DO know is just that we don't know VERY MUCH

          4 replies 2 retweets 43 likes
          Show this thread
        31. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 22 Dec 2020

          34/n I wrote this thread up as a bit of a bloghttps://gidmk.medium.com/20-facts-about-covid-19-1afbb026bc98 …

          4 replies 5 retweets 25 likes
          Show this thread
        32. End of conversation

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