Wow, 15 locally-acquired cases in NSW. So 23-30-15
That's a huge relief for Sydney, although we won't know for sure if the outbreak is controlled for a few days yet #covidnsw #nswcovid
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Replying to @GidMK
Suppose everyone present at Avalon Beach RSL on Dec 11 became infected. They may show symptoms, test positive, and become infectious within 14 days - up to Dec 25. Today is 10 days later. Most of first round have now shown up. The next round hasn't begun yet.
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Replying to @Askgerbil
14 days is possible, but the vast majority (>70%) of those infected will start testing positive by 5 days and be symptomatic by 10. If the numbers are decreasing now it would be unlikely that large numbers are being totally missed
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Replying to @GidMK
That is why the number of cases peaked and have now dropped. The second round of infections won't begin show up for a few more days.
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Replying to @GidMK
Explain how it works. ? When will we know if people have been infected by those who were infected in Avalon Beach RSL and Bowlo on Dec 11 and Dec 13?
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Replying to @Askgerbil
Median time until testing PCR positive is ~3 days from exposure. Time until symptoms is ~5-7 days. So you'd expect the vast majority of cases to test positive by 18-20th, and almost all who will be symptomatic would've become so by 21st-22nd
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Replying to @GidMK @Askgerbil
Estimates of R early in an outbreak are very sensitive to the serial interval and the allocation of infections to cohorts; and can easily be inaccurate early on. Should still watch out for embers very carefully. https://twitter.com/sang_woo_park/status/1268642262516367369 …pic.twitter.com/5Z14ApLvQl
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