Wow, 15 locally-acquired cases in NSW. So 23-30-15
That's a huge relief for Sydney, although we won't know for sure if the outbreak is controlled for a few days yet #covidnsw #nswcovid
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That is for the people in the first round of infections. (One person infected 23+30+15 = 68 in round 1.) And how long before people infected by those 68 cases show up in test results?
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It's a distribution. You'd expect the first generation to start showing up within 3 days, then the second within 6, third within 9 etc. For e.g. 50-100% of those infected on 15th should test positive today
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Estimates of R early in an outbreak are very sensitive to the serial interval and the allocation of infections to cohorts; and can easily be inaccurate early on. Should still watch out for embers very carefully. https://twitter.com/sang_woo_park/status/1268642262516367369 …pic.twitter.com/5Z14ApLvQl
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Absolutely true
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