The research is unambiguous that age is a much bigger risk factor than almost all pre-existing conditions. So it's rather crazy to have this very broad definition of pre-existing conditions (encompassing 100m+ Americans) where you'd get the same vaccine priority as being elderly.
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Replying to @NateSilver538
I co-authored one of the more conclusive papers on the age-stratified COVID-19 IFR and I'm happy to say that in my expert opinion you are wildly oversimplifying this very complex issue, as other epidemiologists have already pointed out
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Replying to @GidMK @NateSilver538
Okay—how should we prioritize allotments of initial vaccine doses then?
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The entire point is that the considerations, and likely the policy, are not reducible to a couple of tweets.
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I feel like that should be answerable with a few tweets. We’re in the middle of a pandemic and we need a clear plan for how to allocate scarce initial resources. If you can’t effectively communicate a decisive plan you waste valuable time
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The point is not an easy answer, but that it is a ridiculous oversimplification to say that emergency vaccine programs are as simple as individual risk profiles
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Of course it’s not simple but we need to make decisive trade offs. What should we be prioritizing here?
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Things not considered by Silver include but are not limited to: • Health care system capacity and resilience • Morbidity as well as mortality • Spatial heterogeneity • Risk factors vs. age (which is itself a collection of risk factors.
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Replying to @Merz @BoobyJargon and
Additionally, the draft recommendations Silver is attacking were made before we had data showing that the mRNA vaccines actually protect people over 65.
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Yes, it’s fair to criticize Nate for that aspect, but people are going way overboard here on his other takes, when they’re literally the same thing advocated for by many other public health officials
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That may be because he implied earlier in the day that all public health professionals were incompetent because he noticed this and no one else did 
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