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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Victoria Fox‏ @drvictoriafox 17 Dec 2020
      Replying to @AtomsksSanakan @Listen49698651 and

      Models do make estimates by multiply presumed IFR’s across anticipated numbers of infections. They cannot predict how heterogeneity, voluntary changes in behavior, treatment improvements & other real wold factors expected & unexpected will change outcomes.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan 17 Dec 2020
      Replying to @drvictoriafox @Listen49698651 and

      Re: "Models do make estimates by multiply presumed IFR’s" Was Ferguson et al.'s IFR of 0.9% for Great Britain accurate? I predict you'll evade that question. https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1339727660554088453 … https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-020-00698-1 …pic.twitter.com/J1rtGPF0i0

      1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
    3. Victoria Fox‏ @drvictoriafox 17 Dec 2020
      Replying to @AtomsksSanakan @Listen49698651 and

      Let’s assume Ferguson is correct & an unmitigated pandemic would result in 2.2 million deaths in the U.S. Let’s say we reach 350k deaths in year 1 with a variety of responses from Florida which is currently completely open to CA which has stringent restrictions.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Victoria Fox‏ @drvictoriafox 17 Dec 2020
      Replying to @drvictoriafox @AtomsksSanakan and

      At this rate it would take ~5 more years of pandemic scale outbreaks to reach this mortality level. Has any respiratory virus pandemic in recorded history ever lasted a total of 6 years? Is this what u expect? Anything is possible. It would be super interesting but is it likely?

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    5. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan 17 Dec 2020
      Replying to @drvictoriafox @Listen49698651 and

      Was Ferguson et al.'s IFR of 0.9% for Great Britain accurate? from 5:03 - 6:28 :https://youtu.be/YezbREhH_Eg?t=304 …

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Victoria Fox‏ @drvictoriafox 17 Dec 2020
      Replying to @AtomsksSanakan @Listen49698651 and

      No one knows what IFR is. It’s a range of estimates depending on which paper you read. If Ferguson is correct we should expect another 5 years to reach the anticipated death rate based on his model in the U.S. I find this unlikely based on historical data of past pandemics.

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    7. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan 17 Dec 2020
      Replying to @drvictoriafox @Listen49698651 and

      Re: "No one knows what IFR is" Was Ferguson et al.'s IFR of 0.9% for Great Britain accurate? https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lanpub/PIIS2468-2667(20)30135-3.pdf …pic.twitter.com/Hi5mCqm9Jg

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Victoria Fox‏ @drvictoriafox 17 Dec 2020
      Replying to @AtomsksSanakan @Listen49698651 and

      Heneghan has estimated IFR to be as low as 0.39%. Who is correct? It’s impossible to measure every infection with certainty. Do you expect a 6 year pandemic?

      2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
    9. Victoria Fox‏ @drvictoriafox 17 Dec 2020
      Replying to @drvictoriafox @AtomsksSanakan and

      This article is from June. IFR is a changing number, effected by many factors. I don’t know what it will be by the end of the pandemic. It also varies across age. Do you expect the pandemic to last 6 years?

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    10. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan 17 Dec 2020
      Replying to @drvictoriafox @Listen49698651 and

      Quick question, @GidMK and @BillHanage, if you have time: Was Ferguson et al.'s IFR of 0.9% for Great Britain accurate? https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1339785788771491840 …pic.twitter.com/BEP5MTM1hM

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Dec 2020
      Replying to @AtomsksSanakan @drvictoriafox and

      Broadly speaking, yes. In fact, their age-stratified estimate, produced in March, was remarkably prescient and almost perfectly in line with our numbers

      8:19 PM - 17 Dec 2020
      • 3 Likes
      • Dang and Blast! blah Atomsk's Sanakan
      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes

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