Models do make estimates by multiply presumed IFR’s across anticipated numbers of infections. They cannot predict how heterogeneity, voluntary changes in behavior, treatment improvements & other real wold factors expected & unexpected will change outcomes.
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Replying to @drvictoriafox @Listen49698651 and
Re: "Models do make estimates by multiply presumed IFR’s" Was Ferguson et al.'s IFR of 0.9% for Great Britain accurate? I predict you'll evade that question. https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1339727660554088453 … https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-020-00698-1 …pic.twitter.com/J1rtGPF0i0
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Replying to @AtomsksSanakan @Listen49698651 and
Let’s assume Ferguson is correct & an unmitigated pandemic would result in 2.2 million deaths in the U.S. Let’s say we reach 350k deaths in year 1 with a variety of responses from Florida which is currently completely open to CA which has stringent restrictions.
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Replying to @drvictoriafox @AtomsksSanakan and
At this rate it would take ~5 more years of pandemic scale outbreaks to reach this mortality level. Has any respiratory virus pandemic in recorded history ever lasted a total of 6 years? Is this what u expect? Anything is possible. It would be super interesting but is it likely?
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Replying to @drvictoriafox @Listen49698651 and
Was Ferguson et al.'s IFR of 0.9% for Great Britain accurate? from 5:03 - 6:28 :https://youtu.be/YezbREhH_Eg?t=304 …
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Replying to @AtomsksSanakan @Listen49698651 and
No one knows what IFR is. It’s a range of estimates depending on which paper you read. If Ferguson is correct we should expect another 5 years to reach the anticipated death rate based on his model in the U.S. I find this unlikely based on historical data of past pandemics.
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Replying to @drvictoriafox @Listen49698651 and
Re: "No one knows what IFR is" Was Ferguson et al.'s IFR of 0.9% for Great Britain accurate? https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lanpub/PIIS2468-2667(20)30135-3.pdf …pic.twitter.com/Hi5mCqm9Jg
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Replying to @AtomsksSanakan @Listen49698651 and
Heneghan has estimated IFR to be as low as 0.39%. Who is correct? It’s impossible to measure every infection with certainty. Do you expect a 6 year pandemic?
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Replying to @drvictoriafox @AtomsksSanakan and
This article is from June. IFR is a changing number, effected by many factors. I don’t know what it will be by the end of the pandemic. It also varies across age. Do you expect the pandemic to last 6 years?
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Replying to @drvictoriafox @Listen49698651 and
Quick question,
@GidMK and@BillHanage, if you have time: Was Ferguson et al.'s IFR of 0.9% for Great Britain accurate? https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1339785788771491840 …pic.twitter.com/BEP5MTM1hM
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Broadly speaking, yes. In fact, their age-stratified estimate, produced in March, was remarkably prescient and almost perfectly in line with our numbers
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