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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Dec 2020

      Health Nerd Retweeted Swapnil Hiremath

      I think that this article by @PeteJamison looks at professor John Ioannidis and his statements during the pandemic, but leaves a few of them out So I thought I'd just tweet out some things said in papers that prof Ioannidis has written this year 1/nhttps://twitter.com/hswapnil/status/1339308701048594434 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Swapnil Hiremath @hswapnil
      'He had appeared at least 18 times on major cable news networks, repeatedly questioning the severity of the pandemic." https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2020/12/16/john-ioannidis-coronavirus-lockdowns-fox-news/ … h/t @boback for this write-up on the supposedly silenced Stanford scientist
      3 replies 39 retweets 94 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Dec 2020

      2/n Note: these are all from published or preprinted research, and I'm directly screenshotting so you can read the words for yourself

      1 reply 1 retweet 13 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Dec 2020

      3/n Back in May, from the original preprint of the IFR paper https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v1.full.pdf … "the worldwide IFR of COVID-19...may be in the same ballpark as...influenza (0.1%, 0.2% in a bad year)" This was a mistake (the IFR of flu is not 0.1-0.2%)pic.twitter.com/sAtTTdCr4J

      4 replies 3 retweets 26 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Dec 2020

      4/n From the same paper, the idea that COVID-19 may have infected 200 million people by May 12th, and the updated versions with the exact same claim (although the date changes)pic.twitter.com/xslRexrc5o

      2 replies 2 retweets 20 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Dec 2020

      5/n Also from the same paper, the idea that the herd immunity threshold is probably far lower than traditional models, a conjecture that has since been proven falsepic.twitter.com/k3t9pciJyR

      4 replies 2 retweets 26 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Ivan Werning‏ @IvanWerning 16 Dec 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      This seems to be based on the ideas in Gomes et al. In what way has it been proven false?https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7239079/ …

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Justin Fox‏Verified account @foxjust 16 Dec 2020
      Replying to @IvanWerning @GidMK

      I don't think the concept has been proven false, but there have been several places (Manaus, Iquitos, etc.) where antibody surveys have shown 60%+ infection rates

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Dec 2020
      Replying to @foxjust @IvanWerning

      There are now quite a number of places across the world with levels of infection far exceeding the proposed herd immunity threshold of 10-20%, and many exceeding even the ~40% numbers as well

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Dec 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @foxjust @IvanWerning

      Another study was released yesterday, for example, from Iran. Infection numbers up to ~70% in some regions https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30858-6/fulltext …

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    10. Ivan Werning‏ @IvanWerning 16 Dec 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @foxjust

      Thanks. The estimated regional variability is astounding. If it's true underlying differences (not sample) then they could be very different, e.g. higher composition of risky jobs, higher R? In that case, can we use them to think about herd threshold for other regions?

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Dec 2020
      Replying to @IvanWerning @foxjust

      I think to a certain extent it may just be the inherent stochasticity of the epidemic - some places were hit earlier than others (this survey was done in May/June). I also suspect that there is something in the timing of when different places started seeing an exponential rise

      7:04 PM - 16 Dec 2020
      • 1 Like
      • Ivan Werning
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Dec 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @IvanWerning @foxjust

          That being said, it's a bit speculative. Hard to say precisely what differentiates all of these regions without a lot of knowledge of Iran I think

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Justin Fox‏Verified account @foxjust 16 Dec 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @IvanWerning

          I've to think ability to work from home plays some role. It's something a significant share of people in rich countries can do that seems much less tenable even in middle-income countries

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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