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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 15 Dec 2020

      Health Nerd Retweeted The Australian

      No one could've predicted a second wave, except the hundreds of experts who didhttps://twitter.com/australian/status/1339035014584016898 …

      Health Nerd added,

      The AustralianVerified account @australian
      As hospitals buckle under the weight of virus victims, Sweden’s PM says medical advisers didn’t see second wave coming. https://bit.ly/3mvX7FD 
      13 replies 51 retweets 341 likes
    2. Andy‏ @weareawake1 15 Dec 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @SGriffin_Lab

      https://limitlesscuriosity.com/swedens-annual-deaths-remain-the-same/ …

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 15 Dec 2020
      Replying to @weareawake1 @SGriffin_Lab

      Trivially wrong. Sweden has a 2-week death reporting lag - by the 6th of Dec there were still ~6 weeks left to report in the year. An average of 7,500 deaths reported per month means that they will likely end with ~10k excess deaths

      2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
    4. Andy‏ @weareawake1 16 Dec 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @SGriffin_Lab

      Andy Retweeted Teddy Petrou

      👇🏻https://twitter.com/TedPetrou/status/1338885821663993861 …

      Andy added,

      Teddy Petrou @TedPetrou
      2020 will have more deaths than 2019, but 2019 was an anomalously low year for mortality rate (about a 5% drop from 2018). 2020 will be about a 5-7% increase compared to 2018, essentially cancelling out the drop in 2019. pic.twitter.com/9GltXKAs3K
      Show this thread
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Dec 2020
      Replying to @weareawake1 @SGriffin_Lab

      There's an obvious decreasing trend, these analyses are just completely ignoring the actual numbers. Quite impressive maths fails really

      2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
    6. Steve‏ @ChiefStevieP 16 Dec 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @weareawake1 @SGriffin_Lab

      2017 and 2018 were the highest figures in the decade. It's not inevitable deaths would have increased this year, but quite a stretch to call that an obvious decreasing trend.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Dec 2020
      Replying to @ChiefStevieP @weareawake1 @SGriffin_Lab

      Deaths/mil =/= deaths

      1:30 AM - 16 Dec 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Steve‏ @ChiefStevieP 16 Dec 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @weareawake1 @SGriffin_Lab

          Yes, so it's pretty flat or marginally decreasing and then takes a large decrease in 2019. If 98k is accurate estimate for this year seems it's tough to make an argument that's a 10k excess. Using 2018 and 2019 rates as upper/lower bounds it would be 4.2-8.6k.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Andy‏ @weareawake1 16 Dec 2020
          Replying to @ChiefStevieP @GidMK @SGriffin_Lab

          Wonder how many of those excess deaths are because of lockdowns not covid?! How many will be misdiagnosed covid?! If we continue using this PCR crap, probably a fair few.....

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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