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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Dec 2020

      Big news! Our systematic review and meta-analysis of the age stratified IFR of COVID-19 with @BillHanage, Andy Levin, and others has now been published in the European Journal of Epidemiologyhttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10654-020-00698-1 …

      16 replies 109 retweets 332 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Peter Pham‏Verified account @peterpham 14 Dec 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @BillHanage

      Peter Pham Retweeted Peter Pham

      this is the type of drill down we need to see, thank you. What multiplier are you using for the denominator for US? Agree it's 1:8? https://twitter.com/peterpham/status/1333671190850805764 … and do you calculate latest ifr vs overall given treatment protocol?https://twitter.com/peterpham/status/1326319759495843841 …

      Peter Pham added,

      Peter PhamVerified account @peterpham
      Optimism. in April Case Fatality Rate for under 30 was 0.18%, Sept 0.01%, 70-79 was 23% over 80 was 41%! Sept is now 4.7% & 15.5%. This is without a 20X in estimated infections as @WHO last month estimated 760M have been infected. https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-10-05/who-estimates-coronavirus-has-infected-10-of-global-population#:~:text=The%20new%20estimate%20indicates%20some,around%2035%20million%20reported%20cases …. https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/1326306959419731968 …
      Show this thread
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Dec 2020
      Replying to @peterpham @BillHanage

      We didn't infer case numbers that way, we used serological data 👍

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    4. Peter Pham‏Verified account @peterpham 14 Dec 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @BillHanage

      what would be the US ratio? or maybe a better question would be how many do you think have now been infected in the US? currently we are at 16.5M tested +

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 14 Dec 2020
      Replying to @peterpham @GidMK

      It varies a lot by region. I’m aware of a jama paper I’ve not had the chance to review and will shortly be collapsing. But would start there.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Peter Pham‏Verified account @peterpham 14 Dec 2020
      Replying to @BillHanage @GidMK

      this was the 1:8 cdc & wsj was referring tohttps://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1780/6000389 …

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Dec 2020
      Replying to @peterpham @BillHanage

      Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd

      I had a very rough go at calculating this using our IFRs by age for the US. Based on these calculations, it was more like ~1:10 in March/Apr, but down to 1:3 by October. Somewhere around 50 million total cases by October I'd sayhttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1321661890301366272?s=20 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Health NerdVerified account @GidMK
      A thought I've been having a lot recently - everyone says that waves 2 & 3 of COVID-19 have been markedly different from the first This is often used to support the idea that COVID-19 is getting less deadly But is it true? 1/n
      Show this thread
      2 replies 1 retweet 1 like
    8. Peter Pham‏Verified account @peterpham 14 Dec 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @BillHanage

      Peter Pham Retweeted Peter Pham

      ha, you nailed it. CDC said 53M by end of sept. https://twitter.com/peterpham/status/1338694999081291777?s=20 … But @who was higher. So then the last 2 months not 1:8? 100M too high? or more like 90M per my math.

      Peter Pham added,

      Peter PhamVerified account @peterpham
      CDC estimates for every 1 positive test we missed 8. End of Sept was 53M https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html … Oct was 1.9M & Nov 4M = 5.9M x8 = 47M. So 100M naturally immune now, hopefully we get the vaccine out to the rest quickly & start seeing light
      Show this thread
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Dec 2020
      Replying to @peterpham @BillHanage @WHO

      I think the aggregate is slightly unhelpful in terms of the ratio - it was much higher earlier in the year, but by now 1:8 is almost certainly too high. I'd say more like 1:3 or 1:4

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    10. Peter Pham‏Verified account @peterpham 14 Dec 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @BillHanage @WHO

      given bayes theorem what do you think is % of false positives?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Dec 2020
      Replying to @peterpham @BillHanage @WHO

      I wrote a bit about that. In short, the false positive rate is extremely lowhttps://gidmk.medium.com/most-positive-coronavirus-tests-are-true-positives-60c95fe54fec …

      8:06 PM - 14 Dec 2020
      • 1 Like
      • Scott Myers
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Peter Pham‏Verified account @peterpham 14 Dec 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @BillHanage @WHO

          thoughts then on CT value? what should we be testing at? shoudn't labs publish the value?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 14 Dec 2020
          Replying to @peterpham @GidMK @WHO

          I think the value is helpful for a lot of reasons, and should be at least reported to improve multiple elements of situational awareness

          2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. Show replies

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