Some thoughts on scientific retractions. I think we can fairly say that there are far fewer than we'd expect if science was working well
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Now, this number is hard to come by, but if we use the database from
@RetractionWatch it looks like about 44 papers have been retracted (although some were just preprints)https://retractionwatch.com/retracted-coronavirus-covid-19-papers/ …Show this thread -
Given that this is not perfectly comprehensive, despite the excellent work of
@RetractionWatch, let's say somewhere around 50 is about right So, given an error rate of 1 in 1,000, half the retractions we'd expectShow this thread -
If the error rate is higher (and it very well may be), this number drops sharply. If we think that 1 in 200 papers is bad enough to be retracted, then only 10% of the expected retractions are happening
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Bottom line: we know that there is an error rate in published research EVEN IF THIS IS LOW, retractions are much rarer than we'd expect if the system was working well
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Note: while it's true to say that retractions often take time, it's also true that of the 50 retractions around half were preprints. And if we only see retractions years after the pandemic has passed, isn't that an indictment on the system in and of itself?
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For the answer to this question, I highly recommend the chat
@DrLabos & I had with@IvanOransky on this topic: https://bodyofevidence.ca/interview-ivan-oransky-on-scientific-papers … ;) -
Love it! Will listen
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When I checked last
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