Some thoughts on scientific retractions. I think we can fairly say that there are far fewer than we'd expect if science was working well
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But let's be more conservative and say 1 in 1,000 papers is bad enough to be retracted With ~100,000 papers published on COVID-19 this year, we'd expect about 100 retractions
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How many COVID-19 papers do you think have been retracted in 2020 (roughly)?
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Now, this number is hard to come by, but if we use the database from
@RetractionWatch it looks like about 44 papers have been retracted (although some were just preprints)https://retractionwatch.com/retracted-coronavirus-covid-19-papers/ …Show this thread -
Given that this is not perfectly comprehensive, despite the excellent work of
@RetractionWatch, let's say somewhere around 50 is about right So, given an error rate of 1 in 1,000, half the retractions we'd expectShow this thread -
If the error rate is higher (and it very well may be), this number drops sharply. If we think that 1 in 200 papers is bad enough to be retracted, then only 10% of the expected retractions are happening
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Bottom line: we know that there is an error rate in published research EVEN IF THIS IS LOW, retractions are much rarer than we'd expect if the system was working well
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Note: while it's true to say that retractions often take time, it's also true that of the 50 retractions around half were preprints. And if we only see retractions years after the pandemic has passed, isn't that an indictment on the system in and of itself?
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I was reading a blog post about a potentially dodgy publisher earlier and they had a 0.5% retraction rate for the date of the blog minus two years, but so did two typically reputable publishing houses
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Oops, I remembered wrong! It was 0.5 retractions per 1000 publications Link:https://scholarlykitchen.sspnet.org/2020/08/10/guest-post-mdpis-remarkable-growth/ …
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