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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Dec 2020

      Some thoughts on scientific retractions. I think we can fairly say that there are far fewer than we'd expect if science was working well

      4 replies 5 retweets 32 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Dec 2020

      There have been in the range of 100,000 scientific papers published on COVID-19 this year. PubMed shows 78,000, and if we include journals not indexed by that resource I'd imagine we'd break 100k easilypic.twitter.com/lOhiLPnYOO

      2 replies 2 retweets 7 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Dec 2020

      Now, let's think about this scientifically. What's the serious error/fraud rate for published research? The rate at which a retraction-worthy paper is published in a peer-reviewed journal

      10 replies 2 retweets 9 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Dec 2020

      (Note, this obviously cannot be 0% because some papers ARE retracted)

      1:50 PM - 14 Dec 2020
      • 5 Likes
      • the sailing science shill ⛵️ Oliver Bestwalter Adrian Egli hexaOrthorexia James 'Vax Everywhere' Stevenson, PhD
      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Dec 2020

          Health Nerd Retweeted Gregory Herczeg

          To clarify, the rate that you think papers are published with errors that SHOULD lead to retraction, even if they are never retractedhttps://twitter.com/GregHerczeg/status/1338602871697403905?s=20 …

          Health Nerd added,

          Gregory Herczeg @GregHerczeg
          Replying to @GidMK
          This poll is unclear. Do you mean, what is the retraction rate, or what should be the retraction rate in a perfect (if flawed) world?
          1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Dec 2020

          So the results are rolling in, and it doesn't look great for published research! A lot of people who think that 1 in 200 papers is worthy of retraction 👀👀👀

          2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Dec 2020

          But let's be more conservative and say 1 in 1,000 papers is bad enough to be retracted With ~100,000 papers published on COVID-19 this year, we'd expect about 100 retractions

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Dec 2020

          How many COVID-19 papers do you think have been retracted in 2020 (roughly)?

          3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
          Show this thread
        6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Dec 2020

          Now, this number is hard to come by, but if we use the database from @RetractionWatch it looks like about 44 papers have been retracted (although some were just preprints)https://retractionwatch.com/retracted-coronavirus-covid-19-papers/ …

          3 replies 1 retweet 7 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Dec 2020

          Given that this is not perfectly comprehensive, despite the excellent work of @RetractionWatch, let's say somewhere around 50 is about right So, given an error rate of 1 in 1,000, half the retractions we'd expect

          1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
          Show this thread
        8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Dec 2020

          If the error rate is higher (and it very well may be), this number drops sharply. If we think that 1 in 200 papers is bad enough to be retracted, then only 10% of the expected retractions are happening

          2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
          Show this thread
        9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Dec 2020

          Bottom line: we know that there is an error rate in published research EVEN IF THIS IS LOW, retractions are much rarer than we'd expect if the system was working well

          5 replies 0 retweets 11 likes
          Show this thread
        10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Dec 2020

          Note: while it's true to say that retractions often take time, it's also true that of the 50 retractions around half were preprints. And if we only see retractions years after the pandemic has passed, isn't that an indictment on the system in and of itself?

          4 replies 0 retweets 17 likes
          Show this thread
        11. End of conversation

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