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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 13 Dec 2020

      5/n The essay then goes on to argue that focused protection is not a laissez-faire or herd immunity approach Again, let us read their own words from the GBDpic.twitter.com/axt4CHNJmg

      1 reply 11 retweets 108 likes
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    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 13 Dec 2020

      6/n Next, we have some statements that are broadly true, and some very spurious statements mixed in. Age is certainly the biggest defining risk from COVID-19, but the statement about children is not quite true, and the "infection survival rate" statement is misleading at bestpic.twitter.com/pk8Hc0nQKi

      1 reply 10 retweets 119 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 13 Dec 2020

      7/n For children, the authors reference the CDC. Here is the table for influenza vs COVID-19 mortality for 2020 from the CDC THAT THEY REFERENCE For infants, COVID-19 is more deadly. For 1-4, less deadly, 5-14 about the same, and 15-24 MUCH worsepic.twitter.com/m7G7Cfa8EW

      11 replies 30 retweets 176 likes
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    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 13 Dec 2020

      8/n It is factually inaccurate to state that "Children have lower mortality from COVID-19 than from the annual influenza" as the authors do. For some ages, the risks are similar, but for infants COVID-19 appears to be worse

      1 reply 21 retweets 160 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 13 Dec 2020

      9/n As to the fatality rate, 0.05% is very misleading. This is somewhat close to the MEDIAN risk of death for <70s, which is 0.04% (at age 35), but given the exponential gradient it rises to about 1 in 100 people by age 60!

      3 replies 17 retweets 141 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 13 Dec 2020

      10/n Moving on, the authors establish that the harms of lockdown are "manifold and devastating" Except, well, none of these references really support that statementpic.twitter.com/nwQDBGrI8k

      3 replies 12 retweets 127 likes
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    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 13 Dec 2020

      11/n For example, reference 11, for "worse cardiovascular disease outcomes" shows a decline in ED presentations and admissions, but not only was this sustained after lockdown the authors found nothing about worse outcomes 👀pic.twitter.com/Fk4xFbd750

      2 replies 8 retweets 123 likes
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    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 13 Dec 2020

      12/n The statement that social isolation has led to a greater number of drug-related deaths is referenced to this brief, which actually shows that the drug epidemic in the US has been increasing since January and talks about remedies to that during COVID-19pic.twitter.com/VuxmueVZUk

      1 reply 7 retweets 108 likes
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    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 13 Dec 2020

      13/n The statement "Social isolation of the elderly has contributed to a sharp rise in dementia-related deaths around the country" is referenced to this document, which disagrees with that assertionpic.twitter.com/aiPPY8I3yc

      4 replies 8 retweets 124 likes
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    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 13 Dec 2020

      14/n The authors then reference the problematic JAMA Open paper that we have critiqued here to show that school closures have killed more people than COVID-19 https://osf.io/9yqxw/ pic.twitter.com/Z46hrAHmDJ

      3 replies 7 retweets 108 likes
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      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 13 Dec 2020

      15/n And we finish this paragraph with the suggestion that, since suicidal ideation is high in a survey by the CDC, the excess deaths attributable to young people are probably due to suicide (even though this is not supported by the references cited)

      7:56 PM - 13 Dec 2020
      • 7 Retweets
      • 113 Likes
      • Camelia Dewan, PhD 🔴 Andrew Lazarus, retired rōnin mathematician JP Bob Think of the humanity lee prew Colin Gardiner Cathy Holt Iza
      1 reply 7 retweets 113 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 13 Dec 2020

          16/n Next, we have this paragraph, which basically says that lockdowns cause older adults to be in constant contact with younger people who are out of work, and therefore die morepic.twitter.com/FLmlpUOklw

          1 reply 6 retweets 91 likes
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        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 13 Dec 2020

          17/n This is supported largely by this study. While the work is interesting, the basic methodology - correlating residence statistics from 2018 with some ecological measures of COVID-19 deaths - don't really give us much informationpic.twitter.com/URGFPUSNuE

          1 reply 6 retweets 94 likes
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        4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 13 Dec 2020

          18/n The other statements - that economic harms are inequitable - are both true and a bit pointless COVID-19 harms are also inequitable In a system of inequity, EVERYTHING IS INEQUITABLE

          1 reply 15 retweets 181 likes
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        5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 13 Dec 2020

          19/n Finally, we get to some actual policy proposals for this idea of "focused protection" I, for one, am unimpressed by thesepic.twitter.com/IIDKQVWD97

          3 replies 7 retweets 99 likes
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        6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 13 Dec 2020

          20/n They range from obvious things that every aged care home in the world is already doing (i.e. staff rotations) to obvious nonsense (i.e. temporary accommodations for older people - this is just creating aged care homes of a different sort)

          2 replies 6 retweets 118 likes
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        7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 13 Dec 2020

          21/n Scientifically, what we have in this document is a mixture of facts and fiction, with some very misleading language thrown in

          1 reply 10 retweets 130 likes
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        8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 13 Dec 2020

          22/n Logically, the document is fairly incoherent, and ignores some basic realities of the COVID-19 situation 😕

          2 replies 8 retweets 118 likes
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        9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 13 Dec 2020

          23/n For example, we've shown that at at age 60 the death rate from COVID-19 is 1 in 130. Does "focused protection" extend to this age group? If so, that's >25% of the entire United States 🤷‍♂️

          2 replies 20 retweets 161 likes
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        10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 13 Dec 2020

          24/n And, not to belabor the point, but the GBD authors have explicitly called for a herd immunity approach constantly for the last few months. They may not like the moniker, but it is transparently their aim

          2 replies 9 retweets 120 likes
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        11. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 13 Dec 2020

          25/n Moreover, the authors go on about the secondary harms of lockdown, but completely ignore the secondary harms of large COVID-19 epidemics, which have been estimated to be just as bad if not worse

          4 replies 14 retweets 160 likes
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        12. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 13 Dec 2020

          26/n Because some people will inevitably say that I'm calling for lockdowns here, I should point out that I'm not, but that any scientific evaluation of good public health policy requires us to be transparent about the facts

          1 reply 8 retweets 128 likes
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        13. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 13 Dec 2020

          27/n This document instead obfuscates and misleads, in a very deceptive way. We should discuss the pros and cons of govt action, but as a starting point that requires us to, for example, acknowledge that COVID-19 is pretty dangerous even for relatively young people

          6 replies 16 retweets 175 likes
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        14. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Dec 2020

          28/n Worth noting that this thread is *not* a review of the GBD itself. The GBD does not cite evidence and is clearly not intended as a scientific document, and as such is impossible to really review except from a political perspective

          2 replies 11 retweets 113 likes
          Show this thread
        15. End of conversation

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