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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. A Marm Kilpatrick‏ @DiseaseEcology 12 Dec 2020

      A Marm Kilpatrick Retweeted A Marm Kilpatrick

      There are a few key unknowns (most importantly, does vaccine reduce infection/infectiousness or just symptoms? https://twitter.com/DiseaseEcology/status/1336446219283955714 …) so paper has to examine multiple possibilities & see if recommendations are robust to uncertainty.

      A Marm Kilpatrick added,

      A Marm Kilpatrick @DiseaseEcology
      Does it reduce transmission? No data at all. This text is under Data gaps. This is huge issue & fundamentally determines vaccine allocation w/ limited doses (e.g. if vacc blocks transmission, SNF staff key; if not, SNF residents). https://twitter.com/DiseaseEcology/status/1334215150333673472 … pic.twitter.com/oEohwOZG0q
      Show this thread
      1 reply 3 retweets 9 likes
      Show this thread
    2. A Marm Kilpatrick‏ @DiseaseEcology 12 Dec 2020

      Paper compares 5 age group prioritizations (<20; 20-49; 20+; 60+, uniform) under 3 scenarios: 1) 1% of pop vaccinated per day w/ R0=1.3; 2) 1%, R0=2.6; 3) vaccination before transmission w R0=2.6). Fig shows 2 outcomes: reduction in deaths, infections w/ no age-dependent efficacypic.twitter.com/dz4ED9lEIC

      2 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
      Show this thread
    3. A Marm Kilpatrick‏ @DiseaseEcology 12 Dec 2020

      Targeting 60+ is always best or nearly best for reducing COVID-19 deaths under these scenarios; Reducing infections is best achieved by targeting 20-49 (possibly b/c contact & transmission is higher in 20-49 than older groups? paper doesn't say or show contact matrix).

      2 replies 1 retweet 10 likes
      Show this thread
    4. A Marm Kilpatrick‏ @DiseaseEcology 12 Dec 2020

      Answer is simple then, right? Not quite. Of the 3 scenarios, scenario 1 R0=1.3 is much closer to reality & needs to be adjusted further: namely, R0/Rt in most of the world is presently at or below 1.3 (https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/global/ …). Figs show a few states, countries; others same.pic.twitter.com/UryOhus8fO

      2 replies 1 retweet 6 likes
      Show this thread
    5. A Marm Kilpatrick‏ @DiseaseEcology 12 Dec 2020

      Why does this matter? Isn't allocation to elderly robust to variation in R0? It's not clear. Can @bubar_kate @DanLarremore update models & show new scenarios w/ R0<1.3?

      1 reply 1 retweet 6 likes
      Show this thread
    6. A Marm Kilpatrick‏ @DiseaseEcology 12 Dec 2020

      (Note, can replace some current scenarios in paper: data shows vaccine efficacy doesn't depend on age; DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2034577)pic.twitter.com/xZDnGd9Fp2

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
      Show this thread
    7. A Marm Kilpatrick‏ @DiseaseEcology 12 Dec 2020

      Specifically, what does model suggest for R0 = 1.05-1.3 (where most of world is now?). Fig suggests that targeting young *might* be better. Also, what if vaccine supply = 70% rollout rate match projected vaccine availability?pic.twitter.com/ZY7GvH4TuG

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
      Show this thread
    8. A Marm Kilpatrick‏ @DiseaseEcology 12 Dec 2020

      I'm *guessing* model will still suggest targeting 60+ is best for reducing mortality. If so, plan to prioritize others essential workers before elderly will lead to many additional deaths. Obviously can consider more than deaths but additional deaths likely very large.

      2 replies 1 retweet 12 likes
      Show this thread
    9. A Marm Kilpatrick‏ @DiseaseEcology 12 Dec 2020

      (Note: I'm also puzzled why NAS prioritization puts co-morbidities higher than elderly. I'm pretty sure 75 yr old has much higher (10x? 50x) chance of death than 30 yr old w/ 2 pre-existing conditions. If I'm wrong - link to paper showing opposite). Also, age much easier to know.pic.twitter.com/cLnQYB0V2Z

      3 replies 1 retweet 10 likes
      Show this thread
    10. Brian J. Gadd‏ @brian_gadd 13 Dec 2020
      Replying to @DiseaseEcology

      I wondered the same thing. @GidMK, @BillHanage and colleagues address this briefly in Supplementary Appendix S of their paper. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-020-00698-1 … They reference several studies out of the UK. Might be interesting to see if there is any updated info now.pic.twitter.com/UTO8C3FWj0

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 13 Dec 2020
      Replying to @brian_gadd @DiseaseEcology @BillHanage

      While we didn't compare directly in our study, I'd say it's most likely that age is a bigger decider for eg diabetes doubles risk of death whereas 10 years of age triples it

      12:35 AM - 13 Dec 2020
      • 2 Likes
      • Bill Hanage Brian J. Gadd
      0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes

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