If this prediction holds true, the death numbers from COVID-19 in 12 months will be roughly equivalent to the entire death toll from Spanish influenza in the United Stateshttps://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1337218855949766657 …
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Virus has over 3x the number of hosts to pursue. Not to say it’s not super lethal, but that 103 million vs 331 million with much larger city life makes a difference.
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Looks like we're headed toward about 500k "official" deaths, certainly more if counted via excess mortality. Redfield's projection seems pretty pessimistic relative to the forecasts I've seen & it would be surprising for a peak to last that long.
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We still have not seen the peak of infections. And it looks as of 3k deaths daily represent daily 150k cases (lag). So unfortunately higher numbers may be coming. 4k would not be a suprise.
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