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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Anya Kamenetz‏Verified account @anya1anya 10 Dec 2020
      Replying to @ikashnitsky @GidMK and

      The technical criticisms are interesting and if you publish a paper with your own alternative calculations I'd be very happy to see it. I'm even more interested in research showing how to avoid this catastrophe by reconnecting youth back to high school and college.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    2. Ilya Kashnitsky‏ @ikashnitsky 10 Dec 2020
      Replying to @anya1anya @GidMK and

      The "technical criticisms" revert the sensational results of the paper 180 degrees! We provide "alternative calculations" showing how critical the errors in the JNO paper are.https://github.com/ikashnitsky/pppr-jamano …

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Ilya Kashnitsky‏ @ikashnitsky 10 Dec 2020
      Replying to @ikashnitsky @anya1anya and

      Ilya Kashnitsky Retweeted Ilya Kashnitsky

      The main problem with "alternative calculations" – there is no was to make sense out of this awful paper. The idea that a couple of months of schooling loss can be converted in YLL is beyond ridiculoushttps://twitter.com/ikashnitsky/status/1328121864628166656 …

      Ilya Kashnitsky added,

      Ilya Kashnitsky @ikashnitsky
      The biggest issue is the assumed *deterministic* relationship between years of schooling and life expectancy. The authors estimate the lost years of schooling and translate them directly into lost years of life. /4 pic.twitter.com/gNM54SX0aW
      Show this thread
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Anya Kamenetz‏Verified account @anya1anya 10 Dec 2020
      Replying to @ikashnitsky @GidMK and

      I guess I don't understand why it's a *ridiculous* assumption; if you agree that educational attainment is *related* to life expectancy, why wouldn't a shock to one affect the other? Even if it's not a one-to-one correspondence.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    5. Ilya Kashnitsky‏ @ikashnitsky 10 Dec 2020
      Replying to @anya1anya @GidMK and

      Ilya Kashnitsky Retweeted Ilya Kashnitsky

      Even if a causal relationship is established (and upon careful check even of the referenced papers, there is very little effect) – it's a lot of a stretch to translate one into the other.https://twitter.com/ikashnitsky/status/1328121891727544320 …

      Ilya Kashnitsky added,

      Ilya Kashnitsky @ikashnitsky
      Education is very important. No doubt about it. Years of schooling accommodate various other effects in the association with longevity. It's a very simple a good proxy for both SES and various lifestyle covariates. /12
      Show this thread
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Ilya Kashnitsky‏ @ikashnitsky 10 Dec 2020
      Replying to @ikashnitsky @anya1anya and

      But even comparing YLL due to the already happened c19 deaths to the counterfactual longevity of kids – effectively assuming no changes in baseline age-specific death rates for the rest of their lives... Just ridiculous

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Ilya Kashnitsky‏ @ikashnitsky 10 Dec 2020
      Replying to @ikashnitsky @anya1anya and

      Anya, I'm open to talk more and explain in details is you are genuinely interested.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    8. tanmoy das lala  🏳️‍🌈‏ @TanmoyDasLala 10 Dec 2020
      Replying to @ikashnitsky @anya1anya and

      The JAMA study has many limitations (as they acknowledge). There are also some gaps in their assumptions. But if we’re inserting personal opinion here, I wouldn’t go so far as to call a YLL computation “ridiculous.” The final numbers may be lower, and some effects may be offset.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 10 Dec 2020
      Replying to @TanmoyDasLala @ikashnitsky and

      The final numbers in the paper are largely based on the assumption that every year of schooling reduces your risk of death at all ages by 25%, which they calculated by extracting the wrong numbers from some studies on schooling and mortality

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 10 Dec 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @TanmoyDasLala and

      Correcting just this issue - indeed correcting just one transcription error - completely reverses the results of the paper, showing that school closures cost far LESS YLL than COVID-19 (ignoring the other mistakes)

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 10 Dec 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @TanmoyDasLala and

      And when I say error, it's really very simple - the study in question said that each year of schooling reduced your risk of death by "about 10%" but the authors said that this paper showed a reduction of 35% 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️

      11:20 AM - 10 Dec 2020
      • 1 Like
      • Ilya Kashnitsky
      0 replies 0 retweets 1 like

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