One other point about the study - I'd be careful with the YLL estimate from the JNO paper, we've published a critique of the figures which have a number of errors in themhttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1336467258655166465?s=19 …
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Replying to @GidMK @surf4children and
Agree the actual estimate is completely unreliable It's more a demonstration that effect of lost future income/opportunities can translate into YLL (even if there is really no way of estimating with any precision)
@statsepi has also commented - will consider how we disscuss1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes -
Replying to @apsmunro @surf4children and
I honestly think that YLL is the wrong way to look at it even so. If you correct the errors, schools closing doesn't cost that many YLL, but that shouldn't mean that opening them is a bad idea!
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I agree with you that YLL is not the metric to focus on in the context of school closures, but likely for different reasons than you. We're facing an unprecedented situation, and any model parametrised with weak analogies is most unlikely to provide predictions of any value.
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Replying to @BallouxFrancois @apsmunro and
This is also true. The casual inference to go from missing a term of school to a realistic estimate of future potential YLL is extremely tenuous. We address this issue as well in our published critique above
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That was not really my point. Missing a school term (or more) will be extremely damaging for educational achievements. There's data on that already. I also don't doubt this will damage career prospects and health. Though, we will only be able to estimate this retrospectively
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Replying to @BallouxFrancois @apsmunro and
Yes this is very true. Focusing on YLL, which is a largely speculative metric, detracts from the obvious and demonstrable issues that should be part of the cost-benefit calculation of closing schools
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Replying to @GidMK @BallouxFrancois and
I value both your opinions, and I disagree Like many (?most) other modelling studies, the systems are so complex and assumptions so uncertain that the number spat out at the end is not very useful That doesn't make the process useless, nor the focus on that issue It's additive
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Replying to @apsmunro @BallouxFrancois and
I don't think I'm saying this well enough. Let me try again - I think calculating an estimate of the downstream impacts of school closures is a good idea, and how they impact health is very useful. That being said, YLL itself is really not going to show a reasonable number...
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...calculating the impact into the future using this metric is flawed because it uses life tables that are based on our life expectancies ~today~. So the number will probably be small even if the true number would be quite large, because life expectancy increases over time
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To put it more simply, when we corrected the estimates school closures may have saved over 1 million YLL based on the numbers in that paper. That doesn't make school closures a good thing, but the metric is geared towards accounting for people who have already died
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