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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Alasdair Munro‏Verified account @apsmunro 9 Dec 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @surf4children and

      Wowza that's amazing Stupid Australia with its nice weather, better lifestyle and barely any COVID At least your TV is rubbish...

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
    2. Alasdair Munro‏Verified account @apsmunro 9 Dec 2020
      Replying to @apsmunro @GidMK and

      Actually maybe you can help me with a causal inference question I'm struggling to determine direction of causality between Australias terrible television and excellent outdoor lifestyle Outdoors lots because television is awful, or television awful because everyone is outdoors?

      2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Dec 2020
      Replying to @apsmunro @surf4children and

      Lol, netflix is the great equaliser! Now we have all the TV 😉

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    4. Alasdair Munro‏Verified account @apsmunro 9 Dec 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @surf4children and

      Touche I am vanquished

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Dec 2020
      Replying to @apsmunro @surf4children and

      Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd

      One other point about the study - I'd be careful with the YLL estimate from the JNO paper, we've published a critique of the figures which have a number of errors in themhttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1336467258655166465?s=19 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Health NerdVerified account @GidMK
      Have you heard that closing schools may have killed more people than COVID-19? Turns out the paper that this idea is based on is very problematic. Have a look at our published critique here: https://osf.io/9yqxw 
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    6. Alasdair Munro‏Verified account @apsmunro 9 Dec 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @surf4children and

      Agree the actual estimate is completely unreliable It's more a demonstration that effect of lost future income/opportunities can translate into YLL (even if there is really no way of estimating with any precision) @statsepi has also commented - will consider how we disscuss

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Dec 2020
      Replying to @apsmunro @surf4children and

      I honestly think that YLL is the wrong way to look at it even so. If you correct the errors, schools closing doesn't cost that many YLL, but that shouldn't mean that opening them is a bad idea!

      2 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
    8. Prof Francois Balloux‏Verified account @BallouxFrancois 9 Dec 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @apsmunro and

      I agree with you that YLL is not the metric to focus on in the context of school closures, but likely for different reasons than you. We're facing an unprecedented situation, and any model parametrised with weak analogies is most unlikely to provide predictions of any value.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Dec 2020
      Replying to @BallouxFrancois @apsmunro and

      This is also true. The casual inference to go from missing a term of school to a realistic estimate of future potential YLL is extremely tenuous. We address this issue as well in our published critique above

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    10. Prof Francois Balloux‏Verified account @BallouxFrancois 9 Dec 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @apsmunro and

      That was not really my point. Missing a school term (or more) will be extremely damaging for educational achievements. There's data on that already. I also don't doubt this will damage career prospects and health. Though, we will only be able to estimate this retrospectively

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Dec 2020
      Replying to @BallouxFrancois @apsmunro and

      Yes this is very true. Focusing on YLL, which is a largely speculative metric, detracts from the obvious and demonstrable issues that should be part of the cost-benefit calculation of closing schools

      3:11 AM - 9 Dec 2020
      • 4 Likes
      • Edgar Häner Darren Dahly, PhD Alasdair Munro Prof Francois Balloux
      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Alasdair Munro‏Verified account @apsmunro 9 Dec 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @BallouxFrancois and

          I value both your opinions, and I disagree Like many (?most) other modelling studies, the systems are so complex and assumptions so uncertain that the number spat out at the end is not very useful That doesn't make the process useless, nor the focus on that issue It's additive

          3 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
        3. mike johansen‏ @mikejohansenmd 9 Dec 2020
          Replying to @apsmunro @GidMK and

          I think you’ve gotten 3/4ths of the way to defining #quantifauxication.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. End of conversation

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