Wowza that's amazing Stupid Australia with its nice weather, better lifestyle and barely any COVID At least your TV is rubbish...
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Actually maybe you can help me with a causal inference question I'm struggling to determine direction of causality between Australias terrible television and excellent outdoor lifestyle Outdoors lots because television is awful, or television awful because everyone is outdoors?
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Replying to @apsmunro @surf4children and
Lol, netflix is the great equaliser! Now we have all the TV
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Replying to @apsmunro @surf4children and
Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd
One other point about the study - I'd be careful with the YLL estimate from the JNO paper, we've published a critique of the figures which have a number of errors in themhttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1336467258655166465?s=19 …
Health Nerd added,
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Replying to @GidMK @surf4children and
Agree the actual estimate is completely unreliable It's more a demonstration that effect of lost future income/opportunities can translate into YLL (even if there is really no way of estimating with any precision)
@statsepi has also commented - will consider how we disscuss1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes -
Replying to @apsmunro @surf4children and
I honestly think that YLL is the wrong way to look at it even so. If you correct the errors, schools closing doesn't cost that many YLL, but that shouldn't mean that opening them is a bad idea!
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I agree with you that YLL is not the metric to focus on in the context of school closures, but likely for different reasons than you. We're facing an unprecedented situation, and any model parametrised with weak analogies is most unlikely to provide predictions of any value.
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Replying to @BallouxFrancois @apsmunro and
This is also true. The casual inference to go from missing a term of school to a realistic estimate of future potential YLL is extremely tenuous. We address this issue as well in our published critique above
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That was not really my point. Missing a school term (or more) will be extremely damaging for educational achievements. There's data on that already. I also don't doubt this will damage career prospects and health. Though, we will only be able to estimate this retrospectively
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Yes this is very true. Focusing on YLL, which is a largely speculative metric, detracts from the obvious and demonstrable issues that should be part of the cost-benefit calculation of closing schools
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Replying to @GidMK @BallouxFrancois and
I value both your opinions, and I disagree Like many (?most) other modelling studies, the systems are so complex and assumptions so uncertain that the number spat out at the end is not very useful That doesn't make the process useless, nor the focus on that issue It's additive
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I think you’ve gotten 3/4ths of the way to defining
#quantifauxication.0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
End of conversation
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