Our meta-analysis of how the Infection Fatality Rate varies with age is now published - great experience working on this led by @GidMK and Andy Levinhttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-020-00698-1 …
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Replying to @BillHanage @GidMK
only looked through quickly Bill. But from your analysis, if the vaccines are great at self-protection (seems to be the case), it would seem to suggest that immunising just >55 yos should achieve most mortality benefits, regardless of herd immunity/transmission blocking. Correct?
3 replies 0 retweets 11 likes -
Replying to @javid_lab @BillHanage
I suspect that would depend quite a bit on how the disease was spreading in the population and your vaccination rollout - if it's more feasible to immunize younger people and they are spreading the disease more, you might get a bigger benefit from a different strategy
1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes -
Replying to @GidMK @BillHanage
interrupting spread is _far_ more challenging than protecting individuals (it's also far more effective, long-term, but we're talking about 2021, where I personally believe herd immunity will be impossible to achieve).
1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
True fact. I do agree that the primary individual benefits to mortality would be in older people, if you vaccinated everyone over the age of 55 the IFR would drop very substantially
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