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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Dec 2020

      Big news! Our systematic review and meta-analysis of the age stratified IFR of COVID-19 with @BillHanage, Andy Levin, and others has now been published in the European Journal of Epidemiologyhttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10654-020-00698-1 …

      16 replies 109 retweets 332 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Dec 2020

      The key figure from the paper - your risk of death from COVID-19 goes up exponentially by age: 1 in 50,000 at age 20 1 in 1,500 at age 40 1 in 130 at age 60 1 in 12 at age 80pic.twitter.com/u15ODdbBzu

      11 replies 129 retweets 254 likes
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    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Dec 2020

      The other big thing we found was that the age breakdown of places almost entirely explained (~90%) the observed variance in population IFRpic.twitter.com/5knmGqgnad

      5 replies 29 retweets 107 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Peter Lombard MD‏ @peterlombard 8 Dec 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      Using prevalence data from http://covid19-projections.com  and cumulative fatality to date, I made a rough plot of state-wide population IFR. I wouldn't think mean age correlates with this variation. For deaths>1500/M, Spring affected states much higher IFR.pic.twitter.com/zr0CnBWtvk

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Dec 2020
      Replying to @peterlombard

      Ah, but mean age isn't the criteria here - you need an age breakdown of the people who were infected. Many places with similar mean ages had different epidemics!

      2:06 PM - 8 Dec 2020
      • 3 Likes
      • subtle himbo body Katy McConkey Peter Lombard MD
      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Peter Lombard MD‏ @peterlombard 8 Dec 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Ah yes of course. The diff in mean ages of those infected in say Massachusetts vs ND could explain the difference. Hospital saturation, treatments advancements could also play a role but much more secondary to ages.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Dec 2020
          Replying to @peterlombard

          It is hard to fully exclude other causes, but the correlation is quite remarkable between the age breakdown and eventual IFR

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. Show replies

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